NFL Week 18 Takeaways

Considering plenty of the games entering the final week of the regular season were mostly for draft position, we still had plenty of fireworks. A future Hall of Famer will get the chance at one more playoff run, three NFC West teams clinch a postseason berth, there was an all-time season finale choke job, and the final game of the regular season will be one that will be rewatched on YouTube and NFL Network for years to come. I think we are all mentally prepared for the playoffs.

Raiders and Steelers Nab Final AFC Wild Card Berths After Game of the Season

Let’s go back a couple weeks to just before the start of Week 15 of the season. The AFC playoff race was wide open, but two teams that seemed like the least likely to make a run and qualify were the Las Vegas Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers. At that moment in time, the Raiders were 6-7 and ranked 12th in the conference while Pittsburgh was one spot ahead of them with a record of 6-6-1.  The unlikely scenario that both teams would even have playoff possibilities alive by Week 18, let alone that they would both clinch didn’t seem realistic. We didn’t know it at the time, but both teams would have to go at least 3-1 to have any hopes of a postseason life. That’s exactly what they did with wins on Sunday and now both the Raiders and Steelers will be playing in Wild Card games next weekend.

The Steelers put themselves in playoff position early on Sunday when they won a playoff eliminator game against division rival Baltimore 16-13 in overtime. By winning and the Indianapolis Colts having a surprise loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Steelers’ only scenario where they wouldn’t get into the playoffs would be if Las Vegas and the Los Angeles Chargers tied in the evening game. More on that in a little bit.  The Steelers win against Baltimore was in typical and ugly 2021-22 Pittsburgh Steelers fashion. From an eye test standpoint, they are probably the least impressive of any team in the playoffs. The exception would be T.J. Watt who tied the NFL single season sack record at 22.5. Regardless, Ben Roethlisberger’s illustrious career will continue for at least one more game.

Now about that tie game scenario. That was almost exactly what happened in the final regular season game which also serves as the best game of the entire NFL 2021-22 season. The Steelers were a 47-yard Daniel Carlson overtime field goal miss away from being removed from the playoff picture. Fortunately for them and unfortunately for the Los Angeles Chargers, Carlson nailed the kick through the uprights to earn a 35-32 win. 

With eight minutes left in the fourth quarter, it seemed like the Steelers and Raiders would cruise into the playoffs as Las Vegas was up 29-14. That’s when Justin Herbert came alive. Herbert put together two consecutive touchdown drives, including a two point conversion on the first one and a Mike Williams touchdown pass as time expired on the second, to bring the game into overtime. 

During the overtime period, both teams traded off field goals which likely caused the entire city of Pittsburgh’s heart rate to cause the Richter scale to jump. It appeared as if the Raiders would run out the clock and take the tie to permit both AFC West teams passage into the postseason, but a bizarre timeout by Chargers coach Brandon Staley forced the Raiders to run another play which put them in reasonable range for a field goal attempt. That attempt became Carlson’s game winner.

The thrilling game stood out not only because of the unusual playoff circumstances, but also due to the late game heroics by Herbert.  It felt like the type of nationally televised game that allows a young star to showcase the talent they possess that will be seen for years and years to come. It feels somewhat empty now that we know Herbert will not get an encore next week.

Despite Los Angeles missing out, Pittsburgh and Las Vegas will enter the postseason playing winning football after finishing 3-1 in their last four games. Las Vegas has a date with Cincinnati next Saturday. Pittsburgh will face the defending AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday evening.

Colts Collapse Costs Playoff Hopes

Now that is how you make a historic collapse. Out of all of the NFL fanbases that saw their favorite teams play their last game this weekend, there is no question that any group should be more frustrated than the Indianapolis Colts. All Indianapolis had to do was win a game on the road against the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team that was 2-14 entering Sunday and whose own fans had pre-planned to wear clown outfits to the game as a statement to the Jags front office. The Colts entered the game as 14 point favorite in the win and in game, but that didn’t happen. It wasn’t even close. The Jaguars dominated them and squished Indy’s playoff hopes in their hands like it was a scene from Apocalypto with a 26-11 victory.

Carson Wentz received plenty of blame for the loss with a bad game against a very subpar defense. Wentz finished with only 185 yards passing in a game the Colts were playing from behind, had one touchdown and two turnovers including a late game fumble. Yes, Wentz was not good and it stings worse due to the fact that he cost the Colts a 2021 third round pick and a first round pick in the upcoming draft. Philadelphia, who traded Wentz, will be in the playoffs next weekend. Wentz was far from the only problem though. His offensive line didn’t help him much as he was sacked six times and the Colts defense, which has been quite strong this year, let rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence play the best game of his career in a season where he was largely a disappointment. A Pittsburgh Steelers win over Baltimore put the nails in the coffin for any hopes of a playoff return for Indianapolis.

The Colts started out the season 1-4, but then went on a run in which they won eight of ten games.  During that time they had wins against eventual playoff teams San Francisco, Buffalo, New England, and Arizona. They had become one of the most watchable and enjoyable teams to pull for in the league, while also having one of the NFL’s brightest young stars in second year running back and rushing leader Jonathan Taylor. All they had to do was win one of their final two games against either Las Vegas or Jacksonville. Now Colts fans will be watching the playoffs without their favorite team, watching the 2022 NFL Draft without a first round pick, and looking at a return with Wentz at quarterback with a 28 million cap hit with 15 million of dead money. Sorry to beat you when you’re down, Indy. 

Niners Clinch Final Remaining Playoff Spot

With the New Orleans Saints leading the Atlanta Falcons and the San Francisco 49ers down 17-0 in the first half to the Los Angeles Rams, it looked like the Niners would join the Colts as another team that looked like a playoff problem only to see their playoff hopes dissolve on the final day of the season. Thanks to 17 consecutive points of their own, then trading off touchdowns in the fourth quarter, the Niners were able to kick a Robbie Gould field goal then intercept a deep Matthew Stafford pass in overtime to earn a 27-24 win and clinch a playoff berth in what ended up being a must win game.

By all accounts, San Francisco was the better team on Sunday minus their bad start. They held the Rams offense to 265 total yards while putting up 449 yards of their own. The only player who had regular success was Cooper Kupp with 118 yards for one touchdown, but considering Kupp’s MVP level season, it was still a fairly impressive day from the Niners defense.  They also forced Stafford to throw two interceptions.

San Francisco had a balanced offensive attack as Elijah Mitchell rushed for 85 yards, Brandon Aiyuk caught six passes for 107 yards, Jauan Jennings caught six passes for 95 yards, and Deebo Samuel had 140 all purpose yards which included some big plays in crunch time.

The 49ers will now travel to Dallas for a Wild Card Round game against the Cowboys that will be fun to see two former 1990s powerhouses meet again. More than anything, we can be thankful we get to see a Niners team with names like Samuel, Aiyuk, Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, and George Kittle on the roster enter the playoffs and not watch a Saints team that could be quarterbacked by Trevor Siemian. 

Super Bowl Road Goes Through the Music City

The Tennessee Titans have clinched the number one seed in the AFC and Mike Vrabel should be a shoe-in for NFL Coach of the Year now. Defeating the Houston Texans by a score of 28-25 is not the most impressive of season accomplishments, but the fact that Vrabel’s team salvaged a season with some key injuries and is the best team in the conference after 17 games deserves some notice. This is a team that relied heavily on Derrick Henry for the first eight games, only to lose him for the rest of the regular season. Then the Titans also had to survive several games without their two best receivers, Julio Jones and A.J. Brown.  With an extra week of rest before an AFC Divisional Round game, the Titans will be able to get even healthier and the possibility of Henry making a return seems believable if not likely. Prior to his injury, Tennessee had defeated the second and third seeded Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills in back to back weeks. The AFC is loaded with good teams that haven’t quite demonstrated greatness on a regular basis. Having home field until the Super Bowl and getting quite possibly the most powerful offensive weapon in football back should validate the Titans’ season and make them the betting favorites out of the AFC.

Looking Ahead to Wild Card Weekend

Typically I think the NFL Divisional Round is the best weekend of football, but since this season has been such a shit show and you never know what teams are going to play well or lay an egg, I’m really excited to see what happens next weekend in the Wild Card.

Cincinnati will get a good test from an impressive Las Vegas Raiders defense. The Bengals have been a joy to watch recently and the “Burrow Train” is in full force. It will be interesting to see if they keep it going against a Raiders team coming off an emotional win.

The New England Patriots will travel to Buffalo for a rubber match with the Bills. The first game was one of the strangest games I’ve seen in years with Mac Jones only throwing two passes due to bad weather in a Patriots win. Buffalo won the more recent battle. I’m interested to see how Jones handles the pressure of his first playoff game.

Philadelphia has made an impressive and surprising run to the playoffs. I’m not completely sold on them being a serious contender, especially considering they play the defending champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Nonetheless, this Eagles team has proven people wrong all season so they will be out to do it again against Tom Brady’s team.

San Francisco/Dallas is my favorite match up of the opening playoff round. I think both teams can beat anyone in the NFC if they play their best football. I also think both teams can be beat by anyone as well. Both have offensive weapons all over the field, but have had questions at the quarterback position in recent weeks. I think it comes down to Dak Prescott and Jimmy Garoppolo. Dak has the higher upside, but Jimmy has led a 49ers team to the Super Bowl before. This should be a fun one.

Ben Roethlisberger gets another game, but will be traveling to Kansas City to play the Chiefs only a few weeks after being embarrassed 36-10. This one feels like it is the most likely game to repeat itself and be a blowout again. My only hope is that we get anything other than awful Big Ben in this game. Either way, I think his Steelers and NFL career ends next Sunday.

We end with the unusual Monday playoff game between Arizona and the Los Angeles Rams. Another rubber match between the top two teams in the NFC West.  They are also two of the more inconsistent teams in the NFC. Both had moments in the early season where they looked like the best team in the entire NFL. Considering Arizona has lost four of five entering the playoffs, no team needs to return to early season form more than them. I still believe whoever wins this game will be a nerve-racking opponent for whichever team they play in the next round.

I expect these playoffs to feel like March Madness. Anything can happen and I’m prepared to be shocked. More than any year, I don’t feel comfortable predicting any team to make the Super Bowl. Let’s just enjoy these final weeks of football by seeing how it shakes out.