Queue up the music, it’s the most wonderful time of the year. The NFL is back! Last season was one of the most thrilling seasons of recent memory with parity throughout the entire league. This season appears to be more of the same with new organizations looking to step into contention and a few previously consistently successful teams possibly falling out of the playoff race for the first time in years. The AFC is loaded. Good teams will not make the playoffs. The NFC will be looking for a new contender to remove the defending champion Los Angeles Rams from their pedestal. A season that will bring heartbreaking losses, devastating injuries, and unexpected improvements or declines will certainly make it hard to accurately predict how the season plays out. That being said, here is my best effort:
AFC Conference
AFC East
Final Standings: Buffalo, New England, Miami, New York Jets
The Buffalo Bills should not only be the favorite in the AFC East, but also the entire AFC Conference. They return were an overtime defeat against Kansas City last season from playing in an AFC Title Game that most feel would’ve been a win against Cincinnati. Rosters throughout the AFC have improved, but Buffalo has proven how good they can be in past seasons. This is a Super Bowl or bust team.
New England was a nice surprise last season and I’d expect them to be decent to good again, but unless Mac Jones takes a big step towards leading the Patriots offense, I don’t see them making the playoffs in a stacked AFC.
Miami should be one of the more enjoyable watches this season and could even be a sneaky playoff team. The Tyreek Hill acquisition could allow the Dolphins to take the top off the defense, but will Tua Tagovailoa be accurate enough down field? I love Jaylen Waddle in his second year and think the Raheem Mostert, Chase Edmonds, Myles Gaskin back field could be an underrated committee.
I loved the New York Jets draft class. Sauce Gardner could be an eventual star at corner and Garrett Wilson will give Zach Wilson another weapon as he hopefully takes a big step after a disappointing rookie season. Wilson appears to be “winning” off the field this offseason. Unfortunately for Jets fans, I don’t see that carrying over to many more Ws on the football field. They are my clear bottom feeder in this division.
AFC North
Final Standings: Baltimore, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Pittsburgh
The Cincinnati Super Bowl run was incredibly fun last season. Do I expect a “Super Bowl Hangover”? Not necessarily, but I do believe things change when everyone else in the division and conference is gunning for you. The Joe Burrow hype has never been higher and his second season with Ja’Marr Chase should be a dominant one. The Bengals have bolstered up their offensive line, which was a major weakness last season. The offensive should put up plenty of yards and points. My biggest question is how good will the defense be?
No team seemed to be affected by injuries worse than Baltimore last season. Their running back room was basically vacated prior to the season starting and Lamar Jackson also needed to sit out a couple of games. I’m expecting the Ravens to be healthy and for Lamar to return to dynamic, MVP level form. He will also have his biggest and strongest weapon in Mark Andrews, who may take the title as the league’s best tight end this season. The combination of health and an easier schedule has me believing that Baltimore will reclaim the division in a tight race.
Cleveland received a lot of heat for their acquisition of Deshaun Watson and deservedly so. To make matters worse, I don’t believe he will even be a factor when it comes to playoff berth as I expect Cleveland to be in playoff contention by Week 12. Jacoby Brissett is a fine backup quarterback, but Baltimore and Cincinnati should be well out in front of the Browns by that point. This is a team that’s a quarterback away from contending for the playoffs, but that quarterback won’t get to prove that until the 2023-24 season.
It’s an end of an era in Pittsburgh with the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger. Mitch Trubisky is now the man there with rookie Kenny Pickett waiting on the sideline. The Pittsburgh defense should still be good. The offense has some nice weapons in running back Najee Harris and wide receivers Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. Johnson is still one of the majorly underrated receivers in the game. There is the possibility that Trubisky or Pickett could actually be an upgrade compared to Big Ben last season. That may very well be true and the Steelers were a playoff team last season, but that was more to do with teams like the Chargers and Colts letting the playoff berth slip through their fingers than the Steelers playing well enough to be there. The Steelers may surprise in this likely transition year, but surprising would be more like winning seven or eight games as opposed to earning a playoff berth.
AFC South
Final Standings: Indianapolis, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Houston
Is this the year Indy finally takes that step towards contention? I’ve been waiting on it for a few years. Carson Wentz was not the answer, but maybe Matt Ryan will be. I certainly feel the Colts should be more confident in the veteran and former MVP. Ryan gets to play behind a very good offensive line with running back Jonathon Taylor behind him and young stud receiver Michael Pittman on the outside. The defense should also be promising led once again by Shaq Leonard (formerly Darius Leonard). A final week loss to Jacksonville last season cost the Colts a playoff spot. If they don’t earn a postseason berth this season, that should the end of Frank Reich’s time with the Colts. This division is their for the taking.
It may seem strange to say considering Tennessee was the number one seed in the AFC last year, but this feels like a year where they take a step back. AJ Brown is gone, Derrick Henry battled through injuries last season, and Ryan Tannehill was a disaster in their opening playoff game last season. Robert Woods is a nice addition. It is possible the addition of him and rookie Treylon Burks could fill the hole left by Brown, but this Titans offense just feels stagnant now. They can’t keep running Henry into the ground at this point of his career. The Titans will still be able to battle for the playoffs because of the lack of quality in the division, but I think the biggest story in Tennessee will be whether rookie quarterback Malik Willis will see any meaningful game time this season.
Doug Pederson is now coaching Jacksonville and Trevor Lawrence should be excited. A Super Bowl winning coach and former offensive coordinator under Andy Reid will be attached to last season’s number one overall pick for latest the next few years (although technically we can’t guarantee that in Jacksonville). The Jaguars’ 2021 season was a trainwreck and they are probably still getting the bad taste of Urban Meyer out of their mouth. This team has promise though. The upside of Lawrence is there and I’d expect a big leap this year. Travis Etienne is healthy and could be a dynamic weapon in the backfield. I hated the Christian Kirk contract this offseason, but the Jags had money to burn and the more important thing right now is just giving Lawrence weapons. They can’t afford to let him fizzle away into irrelevancy. The defense should also have some nice pass rushers including first overall pick of this year, Travon Walker. The Jags have a long way to go, but Pederson should be able to get them on the right track.
The Houston Texans were in shambles last season. The Deshaun Watson off the field issues were a constant distraction and they had a coach in David Culley, they didn’t even seem to want. Lovie Smith is the new man in charge in what seems like an interesting move. People are high on cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and running back Dameon Pierce, two of the team’s rookies. The real question is to see what they have in second year quarterback Davis Mills. Mills, who was not viewed as one of the elite tier draft prospects actually performed quite well in moments last season. Houston will not contend for the playoffs this season. Obviously they will be ambitious, but realistic goals for this season will be to improve their record and identify what pieces they have moving forward as they look to once again become a problem in the AFC South.
AFC West
Final Standings: Kansas City, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas, Denver
How quick are we to forget how dominant the Kansas City Chiefs have been. Many of us had thought they were taking a step back last season and they just ended up winning 12 games before making it to another AFC Championship game. There’s no doubt the AFC West and AFC as a whole is a lot more difficult to navigate now. Of course, I can’t just expect the Chiefs to suddenly drop in a division until we’ve seen it happen. Tyreek Hill may be gone, but as long as Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, and Travis Kelce are there, I can’t bet against them. Don’t get me wrong, the Chiefs’ defense is not good, maybe even bad. Okay, they were pure trash. The days of Kansas City obliterating teams are over. If they are going to win a lot of games, Mahomes will need to be in MVP form. It will be a tight race, but I don’t think this is the year that Chiefs give up the AFC West throne.
If I’m picking one team in the division to overtake the Chiefs, it’s going to be the Los Angeles Chargers. I need to fan myself when watching Justin Herbert play. This is the season he will step into the MVP conversation, especially if the Chargers live up to the preseason hype. Herbert will have a myriad of talent with him including Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. The defense is also revamped with additions in edge rusher Khalil Mack, corner J.C. Jackson, and veteran linebacker Kyle Van Noy to go along with Joey Bosa, Derwin James, and Asante Samuel Jr. The division out west will be fittingly like an old western shootout. I can’t remember a time where there has been better parity in a division. By the end of the season I wouldn’t be shocked if the Chargers not only stand with the highest ground in the division, but are also the premier team in Los Angeles. Think about that.
Davante Adams is no longer a Green Bay Packer (praise all that is holy). He now teams up with college teammate Derek Carr and is added to a team that made an unexpected playoff appearance last season. The Las Vegas Raiders are bought in, also bringing in defensive stud Chandler Jones. They have to know that this is the last hurrah to see if Carr is a quarterback that can lead a team to a deep playoff run. With Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller, there’s no excuses now. On the defensive side, Jones and Maxx Crosby may be the most terrifying edge rushers on a defense and that’s considering they are in a division with the previously mention Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. Crosby in particular seems like his engine never stops until he can reach the quarterback. I have a feeling that silver and black will be in again this fall.
Someone in this division has to finish last. I’m picking Denver and I don’t feel good about it. I love the scenery change for Russell Wilson as he attempts to be another quarterback great to bring a Super Bowl to the Mile High City. The team is built similar to some of his great Seattle teams too. A potential powerful running back in Javonte Williams, good (not great) receivers, and a defense that isn’t “The Legion of Boom”, but could be one of the better in the league. Why am I picking them to finish last? I really don’t have an answer other than each of the other three teams have multiple players who have proven they are some of the most top end talent in the league. Outside of Wilson, has anyone else in Denver proven that? This will be their opportunity by proving they belong with the others in the best division in football. I’d be surprised to see Denver win the West, but could see them finish as high as second and not be surprised.
NFC Conference
NFC East
Final Standings: Dallas, Philadelphia, New York Giants, Washington
It feels like the NFC East has been the same for about the last 25 years. No team really catches your eye, but someone could get in the playoffs, pull off a couple wins, and win a Super Bowl (2008 and 2012 Giants, 2017 Eagles). I don’t really know what to expect from the East.
In 2016, Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott led the Dallas Cowboys to the number one seed in the NFC as rookies only to be eliminated the devil reincarnated, Aaron Rodgers, and one of his Hall of Fame throws. Since that season, the Cowboys have been to the playoffs only twice more, losing in the Divisional and Wild Card rounds. There have been moments where Prescott has seemed like a potential MVP candidate only to acquire a devastating injury. Zeke, once viewed as the top back in the league, has been ripped so much in fantasy football circles that he’s practically underrated now. CeeDee Lamb should be primed for a true breakout season now that Amari Cooper is in Cleveland. The defense will return much of the same unit, but does gain former Viking Anthony Barr. I’m not a big Trevon Diggs guy considering a lot of his interceptions last year were caused by plenty of high risk ball jumps (you never hear about the ones where his receiver goes for 20 yards). The Cowboys may never reach the peaks many of us expected them to when we were introduced to Prescott and Lamb, but I do believe they are good enough to hold off the Eagles for the division crown.
I don’t know what to expect from Philadelphia. Their playoff berth last season was unexpected to say that least. I like, don’t love Jalen Hurts. AJ Brown joining the offense certainly gives Hurts an additional option to go with Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, but the Philly run game will likely have to go through Hurts as well. Miles Sanders has been a great disappointment to this point in his career. Most of the household names on defense are guys that were in their prime when the Eagles won their Super Bowl which feels like a lifetime ago (or so I tell myself). I’m not going to say that 2021 was a fluke, but I can’t convince myself that this team is going to win the division with the addition of Brown.
The New York Giants record prediction if Saquon Barkley stays healthy: 6-11
The New York Giants record prediction if Saquon Barkley gets injured: 4-13
The Washington Commanders have to be the most dysfunctional team in football. I had to remind myself they made the playoffs only two seasons ago. They traded for Carson Wentz for reasons I couldn’t find if I traveled throughout the deepest galaxies. As far as I’m concerned, they are nearly a lock for a top three pick in the draft. At no point should they rush Chase Young back. He is quite possibly the only cornerstone piece to a team that hasn’t been taken seriously in years.
NFC North
Final Standings: Green Bay, Minnesota, Detroit, Chicago
Why couldn’t Aaron Rodgers have won the Jeopardy! job? The man continues to dominate year after year and at this point I’m convinced he will never leave. I will settle for the loss of Davante Adams though. I don’t know what to expect from Green Bay. We haven’t seen Rodgers play with a wide receiver core this depleted looking before. He’s unbelievable, but at a certain point you need proven talent around. I’d expect Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon to be important pieces in the running game and give Rodgers more openings in the pass game. I do think it’s fair for guys like De’Vondre Campbell and Rasul Douglas to regress on defense, but do still expect that unit to be top ten and the identity of the team now. Jaire Alexander is an elite corner, maybe even the best player on the team after Rodgers. I expect the Packers and Vikings to be neck and neck, but I’ll give Green Bay the benefit of the doubt for now because of the defense and that bastard that just never goes away.
I actually feel that the Vikings have the best roster in the division, especially when you look at top end talent. Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Dalvin Cook, and yes, Kirk Cousins, is a dynamic offense that could be top five in the league this year. The defense is the big question. The return of Danielle Hunter and addition of former Packer Za’Darius Smith should bring a huge improvement to a sometimes nonexistent pass rush. Eric Kendricks is one of the most reliable linebackers in the game. The big question will be the secondary which was at times abysmal last season. They will continue to rely heavily on veterans Harrison Smith and Patrick Peterson, but just how good this defense can be will depend on what young players like Cameron Dantzler and rookie safety Lewis Cine will bring to the table. I may not have the Vikings winning the division, but do feel they have a higher ceiling than Green Bay, will be one of the league’s most improved teams, and make the playoffs for the first time since 2019.
Dan “Captain Kneecaps” Campbell is back for second season as the head coach of the Detroit Lions and we should all be happy about that. Love that guy! As much as we joked about his opening press conference, he had the Detroit Lions playing hard last season and seemed to have the players bought in. Campbell is clearly a “football guy”, almost to the point that you could convince me he was some type of Create-a-coach video game character. The Lions have some talent though. Jared Goff will be throwing to second year wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was one of the hottest receivers in the league in the last quarter of the 2021 season. D’Andre Swift also returns in what could be a bust out season for him. I think the Lions also acquired the top player in the NFL Draft in edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson. Detroit seems to have the coach and the are slowly, but surely adding some pieces around roster. They may not win more than 50% of their games, but I’d expect a rather large improvement this season for the Motor City Kitties.
Chicago…well…let’s just say Chicago won’t be participating in any form of Super Bowl Shuffle this season. No, no. The Bears may be shuffling their way all the way to a top five pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. In all seriousness, they just need to hope that Justin Fields is able to stay on his feet and if he can do that, show an improvement from his rookie season.
NFC South
Final Standings: Tampa Bay, New Orleans, Carolina, Atlanta
Tom Brady has returned from retirement before it could technically even be called retirement. Him and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will benefit from once again competing in a division without another top level quarterback. Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston, and Baker Mayfield are the rival quarterbacks. Quite fitting considering those three consist of two first overall picks and one second overall pick in the NFL Draft. Brady was selected at pick 199 only 22 year ago and will return to a team that’s one of the NFC Super Bowl favorites. The eye test is hard to read with Brady because he has more talented receivers during his time in Tampa than he ever had in New England with the exception of Randy Moss. The other benefit Brady has is that he returns to one of the leagues strongest defenses. Barring the spell that was cast on Brady to allow him to age at 12% the rate of a normal human being wearing off, the Bucs will be NFC South champions again.
Drew Brees is already gone. Now there will be no Sean Payton walking the sidelines in New Orleans. It’s truly the dawning of new age. Dennis Allen moves into the driver’s seat as head coach now and his defense should still be strong. The true question is what will the offense look like. Jameis Winston has historically been a roll of the dice quarterback and although Alvin Kamara is fantastic, it’s harder to carry the load when there hasn’t been a player of 2018 Michael Thomas’ level in the huddle. Thomas will return this season, but after playing only seven games in the past two seasons, it’s hard to know what to expect. This was a team that was a Super Bowl favorite only a few seasons ago. Until proven otherwise, they will be a borderline playoff team.
Can we please just have a healthy Christian McCaffrey?! He’s one of the most dynamic players in the league and he’s been taken away from us for moments over the past two seasons. It’s hard to know exactly what the Carolina Panthers have until we see McCaffrey show he’s good to go. The defense looked pretty good last season. Offensively, I’m not a believer in Baker Mayfield, but he will have the benefit of playing with arguably more talent (or unique talent in CMC’s case) than he ever did in Cleveland. DJ Moore is also a legitimate receiver who has been successful with different quarterbacks so If Mayfield has trouble finding him it could be very telling.
If the Atlanta Falcons win more than three games, I will be surprised. If the Atlanta Falcons win more than five games, I will be shocked. If the Atlanta Falcons win more than seven games…Okay come on, this team isn’t winning eight games. Hey, at least watching Kyle Pitts and Drake London catch balls will be fun.
NFC West
Final Standings: Los Angeles Rams, San Francisco, Arizona, Seattle
It’s the Rams division and NFL until proven otherwise. It’s so hard to make it to two straight Super Bowls, but what team in the NFC can honestly be considered better than them heading into the season. Maybe Tampa Bay? That’s the only one I can take legitimately serious considering their playoff game last season and Brady returning to nearly the same team. The Rams have stars made for Hollywood all around. Matthew Stafford (yes, he is a star), Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey, and Coop Kupp. These guys are some of the best, if not the best, at their positions. Stafford may have lost Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr. (for now), but gained an Allen Robinson, who has been stuck in quarterback hell since he’s been in the league. Donald will continue to wreck opponents on the line of scrimmage as he always has. The dude is already a first ballot HOFer. The NFC West isn’t as stacked as last season so I think the Rams are division champs, but won’t be as battle tested as they were last season heading into the playoffs.
Trey Lance season is here. At this point, we don’t really know what that means. It’s such an odd situation to have a second year quarterback taking over the starting job with a guy who just led the San Francisco 49ers to the NFC Championship only a few years after leading them to a Super Bowl berth. Don’t get me wrong, “Jimmy G” isn’t a guy you can’t move on from, but it’s strange he remains in the same locker room. I loved the 49ers playoff run last season and think they are a well rounded team. Deebo Samuel is an offensive Swiss army knife. I don’t think enough people talk about Elijah Mitchell at running back and Lance has enough around him to get more and more comfortable as the season goes on. Defensively, Nick Bosa is unstoppable on the edge and Fred Warner is one of the elite defense players in the game. Realistically, San Francisco may be the third best team in the NFC, but they have to play in the division with the defending champions.
Let’s give Kyler Murray a break. Double XP Call of Duty events are fucking awesome. I do feel that Murray is teetering on the edge of elite level quarterback or a good quarterback whose continuous mistakes prevented him from being a perennial MVP candidate. You don’t see quickness like he has and the cannon arm to go with it. If he can somehow resist the forced passes and occasional accuracy issues, he’s a dynamic enough player that he could carry Arizona to 2019 Lamar Jackson/Baltimore levels. Kyler will be tested early without number one weapon DeAndre Hopkins (due to suspension). Marquise Brown is a nice addition, but Murray will truly benefit once he has both Brown and Hopkins. Unfortunately, I don’t think Murray has enough of a supporting cast in a tough division to make a return to the playoffs.
The Pete Carroll era of winning teams in Seattle is officially done. It was definitely a fun one. So many great players including Russell Wilson, Marshawn Lynch, Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas, Cam Chancellor, Bobby Wagner, Michael Bennett, and Doug Baldwin amongst them. It’s strange to look at Seattle and see a near sure thing bottom feeder. The Seahawks are clearly preparing for a new era and this may be Carroll’s final season in Seattle. Just close your eyes and think about the past several years, Seattle fans. It was a hell of a run.
NFL Awards
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Aidan Hutchinson, Defensive End (Detroit)
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Chris Olave, Wide Receiver (New Orleans)
Defensive Player of the Year: Nick Bosa, Defensive End (San Francisco)
NFL Most Valuable Player: Josh Allen, Quarterback (Buffalo)
Post Season Predictions
Playoff Teams
AFC: (1) Buffalo, (2) Baltimore, (3) Indianapolis, (4) Kansas City, (5) Cincinnati, (6) Los Angeles Chargers, (7) Las Vegas
NFC: (1) Dallas, (2) Tampa Bay, (3) Los Angeles Rams, (4) Green Bay, (5) Minnesota, (6) San Francisco, (7) Philadelphia
Wild Card Weekend:
AFC:
(2) Baltimore vs (7) Las Vegas
Winner: Baltimore
(3) Indianapolis vs (6) Las Angeles Chargers
Winner: Los Angeles Chargers
(4) Kansas City vs (5) Cincinnati
Winner: Cincinnati
NFC:
(2) Tampa Bay vs (7) Philadelphia
Winner: Tampa Bay
(3) Los Angeles Rams vs (6) San Francisco
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
(4) Green Bay vs (5) Minnesota
Winner: Minnesota
Divisional Round
AFC:
(1) Buffalo vs (6) Los Angeles Chargers
Winner: Buffalo
(2) Baltimore vs (5) Cincinnati
Winner: Baltimore
NFC:
(1) Dallas vs (5) Minnesota
Winner: Dallas
(2) Tampa Bay vs (3) Los Angeles Rams
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
Conference Championships
AFC:
(1) Buffalo vs (2) Baltimore
Winner: Buffalo
NFC:
(1) Dallas vs (3) Los Angeles Rams
Winner: Los Angeles Rams
Super Bowl LVI: Buffalo Bills defeat Los Angeles Rams