Week One Takeaways: A Lesson in Not Betting on the First Week of the Season

The title says it all. It’s probably never wise to bet on games where few teams have shown anything of value in the preseason. There’s always a team or two that many expect to be a Super Bowl contender, but ends up struggling and we all overreact.  The first NFL weekend provided plenty of sloppy play, upsets, and unexpected players making big differences. The only lesson to take from this weekend beyond remembering not to bet on the first weekend? Don’t trust anything you saw this weekend to bet on the second week.

Los Angeles and Cincinnati Still Hungover From Super Bowl

Don’t worry Rams and Bengals fans, it’s only the first week of the NFL season. Your teams will recover from the sloppy play they showed. Let’s remember that entering the playoffs last season neither of these teams were considered favorites to even make the Super Bowl. That means they clearly had moments where people had questions about them. Los Angeles and Cincinnati will figure it out. They are too good not to. Their opening games were a great reminder though. A reminder of the parity we find in the NFL this season. The Rams and Bengals are two teams that could win the Super Bowl this season. Two amongst a group of about 12 that could make that claim. The days of only Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, or Ben Roethlisberger always representing at least one team in the Super Bowl are gone. The NFL quarterback pool is deeper than it’s ever been. Good teams are going to have bad games throughout the season, but let’s not look too much into it. If nothing else, the Rams and Bengals now know that other teams are gunning for last year’s Super Bowl participants. It’s a bad start, but we have a long, long ways to go.

Underdogs Take Control of the Weekend

According to Fanduel Sportsbook lines, eight of the 16 underdogs in this weekend’s games covered the spread. Five of them (Pittsburgh, Chicago, Cleveland, New York Giants, and Seattle) won their respective games. Houston finished with a tie. There will always be underdogs who cover those spreads, but several of the winners were over five point underdogs. Maybe betting on Week One games is a risk or maybe it’s just the best time to roll the dice on teams that you would likely never select to win the same games halfway through the season and beyond.

New Coaches Have Mostly Successful Debuts

There were 10 recently hired head coaches who made debuts for their new teams (or new positions in Dennis Allen and Todd Bowles’ case). Their records over the weekend were 6-3-1. Mike McDaniel led Miami to a divisional win over Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. Kevin O’Connell’s Vikings looked great against the defending division champion and rival Green Bay Packers. No coach looked to be having more fun with his players than Brian Daboll with his New York Giants after their win over the Titans. Matt Eberflus and the Chicago Bears pulled off what many thought was a huge upset against the San Francisco 49ers. Todd Bowles’ defense still looked great as Tampa Bay shut down the Cowboys. Even Lovie Smith and the Houston Texans tie with the Indianapolis Colts seems like an accomplishment for a franchise that has been in the dumps for some time. Of the three head coaching debut losses, Nathaniel Hackett’s first game with Denver seemed to be the toughest start. As a pretty heavy favorite with Russell Wilson returning to Seattle, the Broncos struggled all game to put points on the board. That’s a tough loss when you play in the best division in football. All in all though, not a bad start for the freshmen head coach class.

Favorite Moments from Week One

The Thursday night season opener between was reminiscent of the 2017 opener when the Kansas City Chiefs just gobsmacked the defending champion New England Patriots. Those pre-Mahomes Chiefs were not the contender this Buffalo Bills team is, but both games offer an early reminder that a lot can change season to season. I don’t think any of us truly believe Buffalo is 21 points better than the Los Angeles Rams, but it’s reassuring to know the Rams have a long way to go before we start talking repeat. It also shows that Buffalo is coming into this season with a vengeance as they lived up to and probably above the lofty preseason expectations many have made.

The early Sunday games were a classic opening weekend mix of ugly and unexpected competitiveness. It wasn’t the prettiest football, but the games were relatively close. Thankfully the simultaneous madness taking place in the Colts/Texans and Steelers/Bengals games gave us all a Pulp Fiction level adrenaline shot to the chest as Scott Hanson jumped between each game on the RedZone. A nearly 15 minute span gave us three missed field goals and a blocked extra point that all would’ve won games for teams. The two games also provided viewers with the first two overtime games of the new season, which eventually led to a Colts/Texas tie game and a Steelers upset win.

I can’t not mention the Vikings dominant win over the Green Bay Packers. I hate that these two teams played each other in the opening game before either team really knows what they have, but if it’s going to happen I’ll settle with being extremely satisfied with the Vikings win. I truly don’t believe that this game really tells us much about either team. Green Bay will be better once Aaron Rodgers figures out which wide receivers he doesn’t want to throw off the team bus. Nobody knew what to expect from the Vikings with a new coach so I’d expect things to not come as easy with some film on them. That being said, I take immense joy in seeing Justin Jefferson absolutely wreck the Packers’ defense. It’s even better when there’s no Davante Adams on the opposite side of the football to make a response. Finally, I don’t think anything from this weekend made me more happy than seeing former Packer Za’Darius Smith knock Rodgers off his feet when the Packer quarterback attempted to block him.

Few things felt better than seeing Saquon Barkley return to the backfield for the New York Giants. Barkley’s difficulty staying consistently on the field and off the injury report over the past few seasons has caused many to brush him off as a “what could’ve been” player. If Sunday was any sign, that type of label is being made much too soon. He looked unbelievable, finishing with 164 yard rushing on only 18 carries (a 9.1 per carry average, yes you didn’t read that wrong) and one touchdown. Barkley also made six catches for 30 yards. More than just the stat sheet, Barkley passed the eye test. He showed the elite combination of quick burst and strength that allows him to gain yards in a hurry while acquiring additional ground after being hit. It’s that type of talent that made him maybe the best running back prospect of the past decade when he entered the NFL. Even better, the Giants opened the season with a road win against the Tennessee Titans. It goes without saying, but the Giants success is highly dependent on Barkley’s health.

Another feel good story was seeing Michael Thomas open the season with two receiving touchdowns. The once reception monster hadn’t played a football game since December of 2020 due to ankle surgery last season. Much like Barkley, many had already accepted that Thomas would never be the receiver he once was. That may still be the case, but his two touchdown, 57 receiving yard game shows that he will not just fade into obscurity before leaving the league. If Thomas is truly healthy, he could be a big difference maker for the Saints who seem to be the only legitimate competition against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the NFC South. His two touchdowns were ultimately me one of the biggest reasons the Saints were able to hold off the Atlanta Falcons in their 27-26 win.

Week One also showed that Davante Adams is as good as we all thought he was. Although it always helps to play with an MVP caliber quarterback like Aaron Rodgers, it is clear that Adams is plenty capable of managing without that level of field general as he showed in his Raiders’ debut with Derek Carr. Adams came away with 10 receptions for 141 yards and one touchdown in the Raiders’ loss to their division rival Los Angeles Chargers. The Raiders will have their hands full in the NFL’s strongest division, but their offense should be very good with Adams being the marquee attraction. Outside of the wins/losses assessment, Adams does look much better in silver and black than he did in green and gold.

Staying in the AFC West, the Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs didn’t seem to lose a step without Tyreek Hill. The Arizona Cardinals may not be a great team this season, but going on the road to drop 44 points and 488 yards of total offense was maybe the most impressive team performance this side of the Buffalo Bills. It’s almost as if Andy Reid’s team heard everyone talking about the AFC West falling out of their hands this season or that their offense won’t be able to adjust without the cheat code of Tyreek Hill. Well the Chiefs just gave a big “fuck you” to everyone writing them off. Mahomes was dominant, throwing for 360 yards and five touchdowns and no interceptions, something that plagued him early last year. Sure, the defense might be a concern, but let’s not avoid the fact that when the Chiefs are on offensively there’s probably not another team in the NFL that can light up the scoreboard like they can.

Questions After Week One

How do the Rams and Bengals respond?

The Rams loss to Buffalo is certainly more understandable. Buffalo is viewed as one of the Super Bowl favorites and has the odds on favorite to win MVP in Josh Allen, who did nothing to change those opinions in the opening game. They will also have the better opportunity to get their first win as Los Angeles will remain at home and play a very beatable Atlanta Falcons team. Until they lose to the Falcons, there shouldn’t be any reason for concern. One thing to keep an eye on is to see how the much discussed Allen Robinson and Cam Akers are implemented in to the offense. Essentially non factors, Robinson and Akers are expected to be a big reason as to why the Rams would return to the Super Bowl. They will enter week two on a missing persons report hoping to be found.

The Bengals loss was more difficult to stomach considering the Pittsburgh Steelers were expected by many to be bottom feeders in the AFC North. The Steelers’ defense is for real, but it was concerning to see the additions to the Bengals’ offense line seem to improve virtually nothing. Joe Burrow was running for his life all game, sacked seven times, and threw four picks. The protection of Cincy’s prized quarterback looked about as bad as ever. The bigger concern is that the AFC is loaded and a home loss that was expected to be a win against a divisional foe could be more devastating than it seems. Matters could get potentially worse as Cincinnati travels to Dallas this week. The Cowboys may not be the scariest team on the schedule, but winning on the road against a playoff team of last season won’t be a cake walk, even without Dak Prescott. Starting the season 0-2 in an AFC would be comparable to the Bengals tripping over a couch and breaking in ankle in that old Surge commercial where all of those lunatics are jumping over couches to grab a fucking caffeinated soda.

How serious is TJ Watt’s injury?

As previously mentioned, the Pittsburgh Steelers defense was dominant on Sunday. The biggest reason for that was the play of reigning Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith, who wreaked havoc on Joe Burrow all day and combined for four sacks. Late in the game, a visibly frustrated Watt came off the field and gave reason to believe that he had injured his pectoral muscle. A torn pectoral muscle would likely mean Watt’s season is officially over. Most football fans love watching the best players play regardless of whether they play for their favorite team or not. Without question, Watt is on the short list of most exciting players in the league, especially when it comes to the defensive side of the ball. This would also be a brutal injury for Pittsburgh, who played insanely hard in making the Bengals’ day a living hell. Fingers crossed, T.J.’s career doesn’t begin to mimic the injury history of his older brother, J.J.

Are the Cowboys already done for?

The question has to be asked. They looked lifeless in their Sunday Night Football loss to the Tampa Bay Bucs. To make matters worse, Dak Prescott requires hand surgery and will miss as many as eight weeks. Barring a quarterback acquisition, the Cowboys now put the football in the hands of backup Cooper Rush. Rush did earn a road win last season against the Vikings, which sounds much more impressive than it truly was if you watched that game. The Philadelphia Eagles seem like the obvious favorite now in the NFC East. With the way the Cowboys looked Sunday, a New York Giants team with a healthy and previously mentioned Saquon Barkley might be a stronger team than them too.

Did Ezekiel Elliot stare too long at the sun?

That dark shade of helmet tint would be illegal on cars in any state except Michigan. Yeah, Michigan allows any level of window tint. How’s that for research? Elliott definitely looked bad ass as he made his best Power Ranger or Judge Dredd impression. Insert photo Maybe Elliott just elected to wear the dark helmet shade since the Cowboys offense was so hard to watch. Another game like the 19-3 loss to Tampa Bay and Dallas fans will start purchasing them to limit the exposure to that level of football hideousness. 

Is it stupid to boo a franchise legend? Yes or yes?

Russell Wilson is the greatest quarterback in the history of the Seattle Seahawks franchise and led them to their only Super Bowl. The man was possibly the biggest piece to the greatest era in the history of a mostly unsuccessful franchise. Seattle, what are you doing? Brett Favre in Green Bay, Tom Brady in New England, and now Russell Wilson in Seattle. There’s just some players that make you look dumb if you boo them.

“Everybody Loves to Hate-read Power Rankings so Go Ahead and Hate-read” Power Rankings

  1. Buffalo Bills (1-0)
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (1-0)
  3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0)
  4. Los Angeles Rams (0-1)
  5. Los Angeles Chargers (1-0)
  6. Baltimore Ravens (1-0)
  7. Cincinnati Bengals (0-1)
  8. Minnesota Vikings (1-0)
  9. Philadelphia Eagles (1-0)
  10. New Orleans Saints (1-0)
  11. Las Vegas Raiders (0-1)
  12. Green Bay Packers (0-1)
  13. Miami Dolphins (1-0)
  14. Denver Broncos (0-1)
  15. San Francisco 49ers (0-1)
  16. Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)
  17. Cleveland Browns (1-0)
  18. Dallas Cowboys (0-1)
  19. New York Giants (1-0)
  20. Indianapolis Colts (0-0-1)
  21. Tennessee Titans (0-1)
  22. Seattle Seahawks (1-0)
  23. Carolina Panthers (0-1)
  24. Arizona Cardinals (0-1)
  25. Detroit Lions (0-1)
  26. New England Patriots (0-1)
  27. Washington Commanders (1-0)
  28. Chicago Bears (1-0)
  29. Houston Texans (0-0-1)
  30. Atlanta Falcons (0-1)
  31. Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)
  32. New York Jets (0-1)

Looking Ahead to Week Two

The AFC West is going to be the division that keeps on giving this season and Thursday we will get to see arguably the two most impressive teams face off when the Los Angeles Chargers head to Kansas City to play the Chiefs. It’s been the Chiefs’ division since Pat Mahomes took over as quarterback, but many expect Justin Herbert and the Chargers to become the new head of the table. The season has just begun so we shouldn’t look too much into this game either way, but this is a big first test in proving the moves LA made this offseason amount to them being a major player out west. I’m drooling at the match up. AFC West, we are not worthy, we are not worthy…

Football Fans to the AFC West: “We are not worthy!”

The NFC South is not nearly the division the AFC West is, but the only believable division contenders will play next Sunday as Tampa Bay travels to New Orleans. The Bucs are the obvious favorites for the division title with so many players remaining from their Super Bowl team, but the Saints are an interesting dark horse. The impressive return of Michael Thomas for New Orleans is something that could have huge implications as to how high their ceiling will be. If he is in fact back and close to his former self, Tampa’s road the the division title won’t be as easy as once thought.

Cincinnati vs Dallas feels like a “win or panic” game for both team. The Bengals played awful against Pittsburgh and still should’ve won the game if Evan McPherson’s end of game extra point wasn’t blocked or he didn’t miss a usual chip shot 29 yard field goal in overtime. Dallas didn’t have a lot to like against Tampa Bay on Sunday Night Football. Sure the defense played well enough to win against the Bucs, but the offense was so atrocious that it makes any positive notes nearly forgettable. With Dak Prescott likely to miss several weeks now with a hand injury, this Cowboys’ season might be crumbling faster than a Nature Valley granola bar. Historically, starting 0-2 to start a season means trouble. Personally, I think this game is more important for the Bengals considering the strength of the AFC. If Dallas loses, Mike McCarthy will be able feel Jerry Jones breathing down his neck.

The Packers play the Bears on Sunday Night Football so we will definitely get to hear about this being the longest, greatest rivalry in NFL history as if this a good enough reason to put this dog shit game on national television. Yeah, the Bears won their first game, but is anyone actually sold on this team? The league has to reach its quota for nationally televised Aaron Rodgers game so why not knock one out early. We all know what’s going to happen. In case everyone forgot, Aaron Rodgers owns the Chicago Bears. Nothing will change next Sunday. Packers by a billion.

This year we are getting the Monday Night double header in Week Two as opposed to Week One. Buffalo versus Tennessee is a decent game, but I expect the Bills and their home fans to be too much for a Titans team that I expected to take a step back this season.

The second Monday Night Football game between the Vikings and Eagles is the better match up. Two teams that I’d expect to be in the playoffs, but have a lot to prove they belong with the elite of the NFC, this game should be a good measuring stick for both. A primetime Monday Night Football crowd at Lincoln Financial Field will be a tough game for the Vikings, but I loved what coach Kevin O’Connell did in his debut at home. Heading to Philadelphia and getting a win in his second game would be a good win regardless of how good the Eagles are. On the flip side, A.J. Brown looks like he will fit right in as a great weapon for Jalen Hurts, who I’m not completely sold on as a true “can take you places” quarterback. Personally, I’d love to see the Vikings dominate in Philadelphia as they are one of my three least liked franchises (Green Bay and New Orleans being the other two). Much like “The Dude” in The Big Lebowski said: “I hate the fuckin’ Eagles, man.”