There are only six weeks left in the regular season and the playoff picture is starting to look a little more clear. The New York Jets made an adjustment and it paid off big for at least one week. There were a couple of coaches that were in a risk taking mood this week. The hottest team in the NFC East might be the one that is still in last place in the division. Oh, and Green Bay may have a decision to make about their quarterback position. Where have I heard that before?
Started From the Bottom Now They’re Here, Washington in the Playoff Picture
About seven weeks ago, Ron Rivera looked like he was doomed to be unemployed as a head coach in the NFL. Now after the Washington Commanders have won six of their last seven games, Rivera’s job seems safe and sound. Who knows, he may even receive some Coach of the Year votes when it is all said and done.
In a game that had major playoff/wild card implications, the Commanders toughed out another win over the Atlanta Falcons, 19-13. Thanks to a Seattle Seahawks loss later in the day, Washington now finds themselves in the third and final wild card position, right behind their division rival, the New York Giants. To make matters even more crazy, Washington’s next two games will be against those very Giants.
From the very moment back up quarterback Taylor Heinicke took over after a Carson Wentz injury in Week Seven, Washington has seemingly gained more and more belief that they can play with anybody. Part of reason for that success may come with the decision to play Heinicke, which removed the distraction of the unanimously thought-to-be awful trade Washington made for Wentz (and eventually worse once his performance was poor). Heinicke has been a career back up, but has had big moments when called upon. He is far from an elite quarterback, but Heinicke’s somewhat gunslinger approach seems to prevent him from being rattled after the occasional bad interception.
The Commanders greatest weapon though is their defense which provides strong pressure on the line and corners that have been opportunistic in big moments. With phenom Chase Young about to join that unit at any time now, an already good defense may reach another level.
Game one against the Giants will take place in New York next weekend. With other games against San Francisco, Dallas, and a Cleveland team with Deshaun Watson, those games against New York will be bigger than any.
Uh Oh, the Jets May Have An Offense
You put a quarterback on the field who can complete your basic NFL passes with an elite defense and good things happen. Crazy isn’t it? A week after Zach Wilson threw for only 99 yards in a loss to the New England Patriots, his replacement Mike White completed 22 of 28 passes for 315 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-10 victory over the Chicago Bears.
First off, let’s be completely honest with ourselves. The Chicago Bears defense is no where near the defense of New England. The dominating fashion of victory over the Bears is also misleading considering quarterback Justin Fields, who has been Chicago’s only hope of offense in the past few weeks, was out of the game due to injury. A single game game against one of the league’s worst teams isn’t a big enough sample size to claim Mike White will play this well every week or that he is even better than Zach Wilson. What it does do though, is provide a picture into how good this Jets team can be when its defense is supported with points and time to rest off the field.
White’s game was the best of a Jets quarterback this season in all of the following categories: passing touchdowns, completion percentage, passer rating, and adjusted QBR. Most of those categories were the best by quite a large margin. White was also only sacked once, which is less than Wilson was sacked in every game except one. That may have largely to do with the Bears lack of pressure, but also potentially with better pocket awareness.
The New York win moved the Jets back into the playoff picture, placing them in the final wild card spot, just ahead of division rival New England. With the Patriots having swept them this season, New York won’t have much room for error. The good thing for the Jets and Mike White is that their next game will be against a Minnesota Vikings team who although has one of the NFL’s best records, has a very weak defense that also struggles to get pressure on the quarterback. At this point it seems like the New York defense can be expected to show up each week. If Mike White can put together another great performance, the Jets might just steal a huge road win.
Tampa Bay Blows Opportunity to Extend NFC South Lead
After weeks of thinking Tampa Bay would just grab a hold of the NFC South and start to run away with it, that seems less and less likely to happen now. On a day where the only team in the division to win was the previously last place Carolina Panthers, the Buccaneers posted only 325 yards of total offense and 17 points against the Cleveland Browns, losing 23-17 in overtime.
The Bucs held a 17-10 lead for most of the second half, but gave up a David Njoku touchdown catch in the final minute of the fourth quarter that sent the game to overtime.
After two failed series in overtime that led to punts, the Tampa Bay defense gave up a 71 yard drive that ended with a game winning Nick Chubb touchdown. Chubb was the biggest thorn in the Bucs side, running for 116 yards on the day.
This Tampa Bay team still continues to struggle offensively. They can’t run the football, gaining only 96 yards on the ground on Sunday, which is sadly 23 yards more than they had been averaging on the season, a league worst. Without an added rushing help, it’s a lot to ask of Tom Brady to carry the offensive load at this stage of his career. Quite simply, he just isn’t playing at a level anywhere elite enough to make up for a one dimensional offense.
The most shocking thing about the loss to the Browns was that it didn’t seem like a fluke or a game that was given away by bad moments. Tampa Bay committed no turnovers, winning that battle by picking off Jacoby Brissett. The Buccaneers had six three and outs in the game, unable to sustain drives. This game was just Cleveland flat out playing better than Tampa.
The Buccaneers will remain the favorites in the NFC South no matter how much they struggle. Anything less than a division title would seem shocking. At this point though, the thought that this Tampa Bay team needs to just get into the playoffs and let “Playoff Tom” do his thing seems like fool’s gold. Whatever the Bucs have been in the past few years, this ain’t it.
Going For Two and the Win Works on this NFL Sunday
Sunday provided some big gamble coaching decisions that paid off. Both the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Los Angeles Chargers earned wins by electing to go for two point conversions and the win over kicking an extra point for overtime in the final stages of their games.
The first to push all of their chips into the middle of the table was Doug Pederson who elected to send his offense back on the field with 14 seconds left after Trevor Lawrence had just connected with Marvin Jones for a touchdown that pulled the game to 26-27 against the Baltimore Ravens. In a losing season with minimal to play for, Lawrence successfully completed the two point conversion to Zay Jones for the 28-27 lead which the Jags would hold for the final moments of the game to earn a big upset.
The second gamble of the day had a bit more at stake with the Los Angeles Chargers in the middle of a competitive AFC playoff race. In a similar situation, the Chargers cut into an Arizona Cardinals 24-17 lead when Austin Ekeler caught a one yard touchdown pass from Justin Herbert with just 15 seconds remaining in the game. Brandon Staley, who isn’t shy about taking risks when it comes to fourth down situations, decided to avoid overtime and leave Arizona with a win. This time it was Gerald Everett who was on the receiving end of the Herbert pass that provided a 25-24 win. The Chargers remain out of the AFC playoffs as it stands, but are now tied in record with New England and only a game back of Cincinnati and the New York Jets.
In a world where sports betting isn’t legal in all states, I guess we can live vicariously through the risk taking gambles by coaches like Pederson and Staley.
Question After Week 12
What should Green Bay do at quarterback for the remainder of the season?
The Packers should be starting Jordan Love for the rest of the season and quite frankly, I think it’s a pretty easy decision. Green Bay is sitting in 11th place in the NFC and now have eight losses. With current wild card teams sitting with seven and eight wins, there’s virtually no way the Packers could clinch a playoff berth, even if they won all of their remaining five games to get to 9-8. If they aren’t playing for the postseason, there’s nothing to lose with Love playing.
The other part of this is that Aaron Rodgers acquired a rib injury on Sunday night to go along with his already broken thumb. Packers coach Matt LaFleur has already stated that if Rodgers is healthy, he will start next weekend against the Chicago Bears, which seems like a short sighted decision. Rodgers has a dead cap of nearly 100 million dollars next season. Realistically, the Packers can’t opt out of Rodgers contract until 2024. Barring Rodgers electing to retire after the season, he will remain on the Packers’ roster. Does it really make sense to risk additional or worse injury to him in a lost season?
More than anything, the no brainer reason to play Jordan Love starting next Sunday is for the Packers to see what they do or don’t have for their future. This is a player that Green Bay selected while Aaron Rodgers was still playing at an extremely high level and when selecting a player at a position of immediate use could have been the difference in earning a potential Super Bowl appearance. This team invested in Love the day they chose him over immediate help to Rodgers. Green Bay needs to see how this investment plays out. The Packers are going to have to decide next season whether or not to pick up Love’s fifth year option. In all likelihood that will happen, but it wouldn’t make more sense to get a larger sample size of what the guy can do?
“Everybody Loves to Hate-read Power Rankings so Go Ahead and Hate-read” Power Rankings
- Kansas City Chiefs (9-2)
- Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)
- Buffalo Bills (8-3)
- Miami Dolphins (8-3)
- Dallas Cowboys (8-3)
- Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
- San Francisco 49ers (7-4)
- Baltimore Ravens (7-4)
- Cincinnati Bengals (7-4)
- Tennessee Titans (7-4)
- Washington Commanders (7-5)
- New York Giants (7-4)
- Seattle Seahawks (6-5)
- New England Patriots (6-5)
- New York Jets (7-4)
- Los Angeles Chargers (6-5)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-6)
- Atlanta Falcons (5-7)
- Cleveland Browns (4-7)
- Detroit Lions (4-7)
- Las Vegas Raiders (4-7)
- Arizona Cardinals (4-8)
- Green Bay Packers (4-8)
- New Orleans Saints (4-8)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (4-7)
- Indianapolis Colts (4-7-1)
- Carolina Panthers (4-8)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (4-7)
- Denver Broncos (3-8)
- Los Angeles Rams (3-9)
- Chicago Bears (3-9)
- Houston Texans (1-9-1)
Week 13 Game Watchability Rankings
Teams on Bye: Cardinals and Panthers
15. Steelers vs Falcons: The Falcons are less than one game out of first place of a division lead and a playoff spot, yet are ranked as the worst game of the upcoming weekend. That should tell you all you need to know about the Falcons and the NFC South. Playing a bad Pittsburgh team doesn’t help.
14. Jaguars vs Lions: Jacksonville and Detroit are two teams that can move the ball, but can’t stop anything. This game will be meaningless as far as post season stake goes, but should be a fun and potentially high scoring game between two of the NFL’s youngest teams.
13. Packers vs Bears: The oldest rivalry in the NFL won’t provide much reason to watch. It’s been a big step back for the Packers and although the Bears seem to have found a solution at quarterback with Justin Fields, the team continues to lose. With Aaron Rodgers rib injury, Chicago may be facing Jordan Love at quarterback. Bears fans might be praying he doesn’t own their team in game one like Rodgers has for years.
12. Browns vs Texans: Cleveland earned a tough overtime win over Tampa Bay and now they get Deshaun Watson off of suspension. Any chance of a playoff berth will likely require the Browns to run the table. Getting a win against Houston should be an easy step one.
11. Chargers vs Raiders: Two AFC West teams coming off emotional wins in the final moments. The Chargers have minimal room for error, competing with a challenging group for AFC Wild Card spots, but Las Vegas is coming off two straight wins.
10. Seahawks vs Rams: It’s hard to remember a defending Super Bowl champion in recent memory that has become as big of a mess as the Los Angeles Rams have this season. They were already bad, but now they are beat up with injuries. The Seahawks need to get their mojo back. They’ve not only lost their NFC West division lead, but are also on the outside looking in of the playoff picture.
9. Broncos vs Ravens: Denver has lost seven of eight games and Nathaniel Hackett looks certain to lose his job as head coach after only one season. Other than a good defense, the Broncos don’t have much to cheer for. After falling to Jacksonville, Baltimore can’t afford another slip up as they are now tied with Cincinnati for the AFC North lead.
8. Colts vs Cowboys: The Colts have been in every game with Jeff Saturday as head coach, but continue to be the definition of “mediocre” in the NFL. Dallas has a division title and NFC #1 seed to play for as they attempt to keep pace with Philadelphia. Cowboys need to and will likely win this game.
7. Saints vs Buccaneers: Unfortunately one team needs to represent the NFC South in the playoffs. Tampa Bay will remain the favorites, but based on record alone, it’s still a wide open race. The most meaningful game between two teams that are not very good.
6. Jets vs Vikings: The Jets found a quarterback that works for at least one week with Mike White. Minnesota gave up nearly 400 yards passing on Thanksgiving Day to a previously struggling Mac Jones. Two of the most improved teams in the NFL this season will likely be decided by whether the Vikings can put up points against a talented New York defense.
5. Bills vs Patriots: For years, the AFC East has been dominated by one singular team, either the Belichick/Brady Patriots or more recently, the Buffalo Bills. This season, all four teams are battling for the division crown and have a chance to earn a postseason berth. The Bills haven’t looked like their previously dominant selves over the past month. Foxborough in December won’t be an easy place to return to that form.
4. Commanders vs Giants: And just like that, every NFC East team would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Washington and New York would hold those last two wild card spots, but with Seattle and Atlanta still within striking distance, this is a massive game for both teams. With two games against one another over the next three weeks, these games may decide whether only one or both make it to the playoffs.
3. Titans vs Eagles: Philadelphia has passed nearly every test they’ve faced this year. Barring some major injury or collapse, the Eagles will be one of the favorites to represent the NFC in this year’s Super Bowl. One of the few question marks for Philly is their ability to consistently stop the run. Tennessee provides just that challenge in Derrick Henry
2. Dolphins vs 49ers: Both Miami and San Francisco own the longest current winning streaks in their conference (Kansas City tied with Miami at five games). With the acquisition of Christian McCaffrey for the Niners and the return of Tua Tagovailoa from injury for Miami, these two teams are now in a small group of teams that many believe could be playing in the Super Bowl. This also features Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel facing off against Kyle Shanahan who he worked under as San Francisco’s Offensive Coordinator just last season.
1. Chiefs vs Bengals: A rematch of last season’s AFC Title Game. Cincinnati started the season off a little rocky, but have played better football lately. Ja’Marr Chase may also return from injury which gives Joe Burrow his favorite weapon. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are playing better than maybe any team in the league right now. This will be one of Kansas City’s toughest regular season tests and a preview for a potential playoff rematch come the postseason. The best game in a week full of great games.