NFL Week 18 Takeaways: NFL Playoffs, Here We Come

Another NFL regular season has come to an end. The final NFL weekend had it’s share of unimportant games, but also provided meaningful matchups up until the final whistle of Sunday night. With three playoff spots available ahead of the weekend, the NFL Playoff picture is now in place. With so much parity in the NFL and the playoffs just starting, this football season feels like it’s just about to really take off.

Courageous Lions Victory Delivers Wild Card Berth to Seattle

It only took until the final game of the NFL regular season, a game in which they weren’t even a participant, but the Seattle Seahawks are your third an final NFC wild card team. Seattle clinched an opportunity to face their division rival San Francisco 49ers thanks to a combination of their 19-16 overtime victory over the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit’s Sunday night win over Green Bay by the score of 20-16. 

Seattle did their work earlier in the day on Sunday, thanks to squeezing out a win over the Rams. It didn’t come without some drama as kicker Jason Myers missed a potential game winning 46 yard field goal as time expired to send the game to overtime. Ultimately, Myers would get his second chance and be successful on a 32 yard overtime field goal for the win. With the win, Seattle had eliminated the Detroit Lions from playoff contention ahead of their Sunday Night Football game and NFL regular season finale against the Green Bay Packers.

Despite being eliminated, the Detroit Lions could’ve convinced everyone that they were still playing for a playoff berth as Dan Campbell’s team battled in a hostile Lambeau Field environment.  With the Packers playing to win and clinch the final wild card position over the Seahawks, a Lions defense that has struggled most of the season only allowed Green Bay to find the end zone one time all night.

Detroit relied on former Packer Jamaal Williams providing two touchdowns and Campbell’s gutsy decisions, including to go for a late game clinching fourth down call instead of kicking a field goal for a seven point lead.  This, stacked with two forced turnovers in big time moments allowed the Lions to eliminate their divisional foe and give them their first winning season since 2017. Campbell’s team has made huge improvements in just two years of his leadership and could be NFC North favorites come next season.

Detroit may have had the biggest moment, but it will be Seattle benefitting the most. The Seahawks will now get a third opportunity to defeat the San Francisco 49ers, a team that has been unbeatable for over two months. Just a few weeks ago it looked like Pete Carroll’s team would fall short of reaching the postseason. Thanks to Detroit, Seattle will take on the Niners in the playoffs for the first time since 2013, the Richard Sherman-Michael Crabtree game and the Seahawks Super Bowl season. At least for one night, Seattle became Detroit fans.

Late Fumble Return Gives Jags Divisional Title, Completes Pederson’s Single Season Turnaround

One season ago, the Jacksonville Jaguars were a 3-14 team that had fired Urban Meyer in the middle of the season before he had even finished his first year as head coach. They are now a 9-8 football team that has won their fourth division title and will return to the playoffs for the first time since 2017.

Like a lot of the season, Jacksonville’s win-and-in game wasn’t necessarily pretty. The Jaguars played from behind for most of the game, but with 2:51 to play and down 16-13 to Tennessee, Josh Allen picked up a Josh Dobbs fumble and ran it 37 yards for a touchdown. The fumble return would be the final points of the game and enough to give the Jaguars a 20-16 win.

The Jaguars needed to make a big move after the mess that Meyer had left upon his firing and they accomplished that by hiring Doug Pederson, a former Super Bowl winning head coach and an offensive mind to pair with second year quarterback Trevor Lawrence. It took some time, starting the season 2-6, but the Jaguars have picked up their stride in the second half of the season, winning their last five games.

Beyond the playoff berth, Lawrence’s second year improvement is one of Pederson’s greatest accomplishments. Lawrence passed for over 4,000 yards this season while doubling his passing touchdowns and cutting his interceptions in half. The former first overall pick still has room to grow, but Jags fans can now see some of the potential that once made Lawrence a generational quarterback prospect.

Lawrence and the Jaguars will take on Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card next weekend. With Lawrence and Herbert splitting time on the field, NFL fans will be drooling over a game that features two of the most hyped young quarterbacks, both making their playoff debuts. 

Two Kickoff Returns Part of Bills Emotional Victory

Six days after Damar Hamlin collapsed in Cincinnati, the Buffalo Bills were on their home field in an important game to clinch the AFC’s second seed and put them in a position to not have to play a road game throughout the playoffs. As if the stage wasn’t overwhelming enough, they were also playing a New England team who would clinch the final wild card with a win.  

With a moment that could only be described as something that was movie-like, Nyheim Hines took the opening kickoff and returned it 96 yards for a Bills touchdown. The play that earned a “OMFG” tweet from Hamlin, would be the first of two return touchdowns by Hines on the day as he also ran back a 101 yard return in the third quarter.

The Bills would ride those two magical plays and three forced turnovers to a 35-23 victory just days after reports came out that Hamlin had made significant progress. After two straight losses in the middle of the season and concern over Josh Allen’s elbow, Buffalo has now put together seven straight wins. The win also guarantees that Buffalo will earn at least two potential home playoff games and would have them play a potential AFC Championship Game against Kansas City on a neutral field as part of the NFL’s adjustment to their game against Cincinnati not being rescheduled.

Buffalo’s playoff journey will begin against another division rival, the Miami Dolphins. The series between the two AFC East teams split 1-1 with both games decided by three or less points, but the Dolphins appear to be sliding while Buffalo is rising. Tua Tagovailoa would need to pass a five-step concussion protocol for him to make a start for Miami, which seems incredibly unlikely. Assuming Teddy Bridgewater or Skylar Thompson start for the Fins, Buffalo should be heavy favorites.

Miami Limps into Postseason with Zero Touchdown Game Win

With the final Wild Card spot in the AFC up for grabs, the Miami Dolphins are the team that came down with the playoff berth. Thanks to a New England Patriots loss, the Dolphins were able to squeeze out an 11-6 victory over the New York Jets in a game that supplied no touchdowns to claim the seventh and final spot in the AFC. The game ended up being a must win as the Pittsburgh Steelers defeated Cleveland, 28-14, a win that would’ve awarded Mike Tomlin’s team a playoff entry with a Dolphins loss.

The Dolphins had plenty of offensive struggles being quarterbacked by third stringer Skylar Thompson, but the defense provided enough spark to hold a Joe Flacco led Jets offense to just 187 yards of total offense.  In effect, New York’s difficulty in moving the ball downfield ended up leading to the demise of Pittsburgh’s season.

Beyond the playoff berth, the Dolphins also put an end to a five game losing streak which nearly cost them a season that at one point seemed like a certainty it would end in the playoffs.  The Dolphins opened their streaky season at 3-0, fell to 3-3, then won five games to jump to 8-3 before losing every game until Sunday’s victory. 

Now what happens with the Dolphins in the playoffs? Tua Tagovailoa is not likely returning to that field and he probably shouldn’t. Facing a team like Buffalo, a healthy Tua would’ve likely given the Dolphins a fair chance. If Teddy Bridgewater can play through a finger and knee issue, he barely gives the Dolphins a chance. Skylar Thompson? No way.

Post Week 18 Question

Did the best seven teams in both the NFC and AFC actually make it to the postseason?

With the amount of teams that had an opportunity to claim the final spot in both conferences it is hard to confidently say the best seven teams are playing in the NFC and AFC. The NFL season is a long one and what we saw on Sunday was two teams who made their money earlier in the season, which provided enough wins for them to sneak into the postseason on the final day of the regular season.

The Seattle Seahawks were one of the great surprises of the NFL season, especially in the first half of the season when they were 6-3. Things have cooled off with the Seahawks as they’ve gone 3-5 in their last eight games. Considering this team was expected to be a bottom feeder after the trade of Russell Wilson, it’s hard to not view this season as an unbelievable success story. Geno Smith is the NFL’s completion percentage leader and seems like a lock to win Comeback Player of the Year. Seattle’s rookie class with players like Kenneth Walker III and Tariq Woolen might be the best in the NFL. The Seahawks have found immediate talent in surprising places

One could argue that both the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers were actually playing better football at the end of the season. It may not also be a stretch to say both NFC North teams have a higher level of play when they are at their best, something that didn’t happen nearly enough and cost them both Seattle’s place in the playoff picture. Personally, as a football fan I would’ve loved to see Dan Campbell coach the Lions in the playoffs, especially after their incredible win in Lambeau. Let’s not take anything away from Seattle though. Pete Carroll has gotten more mileage out of this team than likely any of his other teams.

In the AFC it seems pretty clear that we will not be getting a Dolphins team that is currently one of the best seven in the conference. If Skylar Thompson ends up being expected to start against Buffalo, I’d give both New England or Pittsburgh a stronger chance. This is more of a matter of terrible timing. No team has turned it on and off more than Miami this year. The Dolphins season has gone as Tua Tagovailoa and his health have gone. Fortunately for Miami, they played well enough throughout the season to clinch their playoff spot. Unfortunately, they’ve clinched when their first string quarterback won’t likely be an option.

It’s hard to go through the Dolphins, Patriots, Steelers, and Titans with a fine tooth comb and say that one was truly better than the other. All of these teams had plenty of weaknesses and/or health issues. Personally, I think Pittsburgh and their strong defense made them the true best of those organizations at this point in the season. It’s just too bad the Steelers had to play without T.J. Watt for a large portion of the early part of the season.

In the end, it’s hard to nitpick the seventh best team in both conferences. Since the NFL has added an additional team to each conference for the playoffs it has given us extra playoff games, but the margin in talent has been increased. It is likely it wouldn’t matter which team were to claim these final playoff spots when they will be playing the Buffalo Bills or San Francisco 49ers.

Playoff Power Rankings

  1. Buffalo Bills (13-3)
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)
  3. San Francisco 49ers (13-4)
  4. Cincinnati Bengals (12-4)
  5. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
  6. Dallas Cowboys (12–5)
  7. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)
  8. Minnesota Vikings (13-4)
  9. Baltimore Ravens (10-7)
  10. New York Giants (9-7-1)
  11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9)
  12. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
  13. Seattle Seahawks (9-8)
  14. Miami Dolphins (9-8)

Wild Card Weekend Game Watchability Rankings

6. Dolphins vs Bills: For Tua Tagovailoa’s sake, it’s in his best interest that he doesn’t play in this game. It’s hard to imagine the Dolphins would actually play him after the multiple concussions he’s had this season. If Tua had been playing, especially to the level he was performing when healthy, this game is one of the best of the weekend, but then again, if that were the case the Dolphins wouldn’t have been the final wild card team. With Teddy Bridgewater or Skylar Thompson playing, the Bills should be heavy favorites. This game will likely fall somewhere between double digit victory and unwatchable blowout.  Buffalo is starting to put it all together again and Miami coming out with a win would be a massive upset.

5. Seahawks vs 49ers: San Francisco hasn’t lost a game since October and may be the NFC favorites. Seattle will provide a familiar foe whom they are already 2-0 against this season. The Seahawks will have a big chip on their shoulder as they clinched their playoff berth at the last possible moment thanks to a Detroit Lions win over Green Bay. They say it’s hard to beat the same team three times, but this Niners team should have plenty of confidence that it won’t be an issue.

4.  Ravens vs Bengals: If Lamar Jackson can return from injury for Baltimore, you could argue this will be the best game of Wild Card Weekend.  With Lamar, the Ravens defeated Cincinnati way back in Week Five. If Tyler Huntley or Anthony Brown are expected to start, this game loses a lot of luster. It would be hard to imagine Joe Burrow and the red hot Bengals losing a Lamar-less Ravens team. Here’s hoping Lamar is good to go and we get a potentially electric Wild Card matchup between AFC North rivals. 

3. Giants vs Vikings: There are three things I know about this game: One, this game will be close. Two, this game will be ugly. Three, the team that loses this game will lose in some devastating way like a missed midrange field goal or a costly late game turnover. These two teams played just a couple weeks ago and the Vikings won off a 61 yard field goal. Don’t get me wrong, this game should be entertaining. It will also torment Vikings and Giants fans for three hours. By the end of this game, a Vikings/Giants playoff game will have it’s own place in the circles of hell.

2. Chargers vs Jaguars: This game is all about Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. Do either of these teams have much of a realistic Super Bowl path with a win? No, but at the end of the day most of us want to see the best players play in the postseason and that means watching the best quarterbacks. The playoffs are where legacies are made and this will be Herbert and Lawrence’s postseason debut.  Los Angeles opens as a one point road favorite for the closest line of all of the wild card games. This one will likely go down to the wire.

1. Cowboys vs Buccaneers:  The game we’ve expected to see for weeks now. Dallas and Tampa Bay opened the season playing each other and now one team’s season will end at the hand of the other. The Bucs have been a great disappointment, but it’s a home game for them and they have playoff Tom Brady. Dallas could fall anywhere from Super Bowl champion to disappointing first round playoff exit. A big game with big players where literally any outcome wouldn’t be surprising.