The biggest night of the year for movies is finally here. The stars will be out and the best films and performances of the year will be honored at the Dolby Theatre. With 54 different films nominated in 23 different categories, here are predictions as to who will win each award and an occasional differing opinion of who or what should win particular awards.
Best Visual Effects
All Quiet on the Western Front (Frank Petzold, Viktor Müller, Markus Frank, and Kamal Jafar)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett)
The Batman (Dan Lemmon, Russell Earl, Anders Langlands, and Dominic Tuohy)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Geoffrey Baumann, Craig Hammack, R. Christopher White, and Dan Sudick)
Top Gun: Maverick (Ryan Tudhope, Seth Hill, Bryan Liston, and Scott R. Fisher)
Who Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water (Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett)
Who Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water (Joe Letteri, Richard Baneham, Eric Saindon, and Daniel Barrett)
James Cameron’s sequel should run away with this award. The debate of Avatar: The Way of Water, how good it is, and whether it deserves to be a Best Picture nomination is a separate deal. What can’t be debated is that Cameron has a knack for making some of the most visually spectacular movies of all time.
Best Film Editing
The Banshees of Inisherin (Mikel E. G. Nielsen)
Elvis (Matt Villa and Jonathan Redmond)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Paul Rogers)
Tár (Monika Willi)
Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
Who Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once (Paul Rogers)
Who Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
Best Costume Design
Babylon (Mary Zophres)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth Carter)
Elvis (Catherine Martin)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Shirley Kurata)
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Jenny Beavan)
Who Will Win: Elvis (Catherine Martin)
Who Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth Carter)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has the whole Marvel film and sequel thing working against it, but if it’s the best nominee it still deserves the award. For all it’s faults as a movie, Black Panther does an unbelievable job of world building with Wakanda and a key to that is the presentation of it’s own authentic culture, which is in large part created through the cast’s stylish costumes.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
All Quiet on the Western Front (Heike Merker and Linda Eisenhamerová)
The Batman (Naomi Donne, Mike Marino, and Mike Fontaine)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Camille Friend and Joel Harlow)
Elvis (Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, and Aldo Signoretti)
The Whale (Adrien Morrow, Judy Chin, and Anne Marie Bradley)
Who Will Win: The Whale (Adrien Morrow, Judy Chin, and Anne Marie Bradley)
Who Should Win: Elvis (Mark Coulier, Jason Baird, and Aldo Signoretti)
I won’t roll over backwards for Elvis, but from an overall film standpoint, the work done to transform Austin Butler into Elvis Presley at multiple stages of Presley’s life should be enough to overcome the prosthetics and makeup of Brendan Fraser. As great as Butler’s performance is, audiences can’t be convinced of him being “The King” if he doesn’t look like him.
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front (James Friend)
Bardo, False Chronicles of a Handful of Truths (Darius Khondji)
Elvis (Mandy Walker)
Empire of Light (Roger Deakins)
Tár (Florian Hoffmeister)
Who Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front (James Friend)
Who Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front (James Friend)
Best Production Design
All Quiet on the Western Front (Production Design: Christian M. Goldbeck; Set Decoration: Ernestine Hipper)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Production Design: Dylan Cole and Ben Procter; Set Decoration: Vanessa Cole)
Babylon (Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino)
Elvis (Production Design: Catherine Martin and Karen Murphy; Set Decoration: Bev Dunn)
The Fabelmans (Production Design: Rick Carter; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara)
Who Will Win: Babylon (Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino)
Who Should Win: Babylon (Production Design: Florencia Martin; Set Decoration: Anthony Carlino)
Best Sound
All Quiet on the Western Front (Viktor Prášil, Frank Kruse, Markus Stemler, Lars Ginzel, and Stefan Korte)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Julian Howarth, Gwendolyn Yates Whittle, Dick Bernstein, Christopher Boyes, Gary Summers, and Michael Hedges)
The Batman (Stuart Wilson, William Files, Douglas Murray, and Andy Nelson)
Elvis (David Lee, Wayne Pashley, Andy Nelson, and Michael Keller)
Top Gun: Maverick (Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor)
Who Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick (Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor)
Who Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick (Mark Weingarten, James H. Mather, Al Nelson, Chris Burdon, and Mark Taylor)
Best Original Song
“Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman (Music and lyrics by Diane Warren)
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick (Music and lyrics by Lady Gaga and BloodPop)
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda (Music by Tems, Rihanna, Ryan Coogler, and Ludwig Göransson; Lyrics by Tems and Ryan Coogler)
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR (Music by M. M. Keeravani; Lyrics by Chandrabose)
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once (Music by Ryan Lott, David Byrne, and Mitski; Lyrics by Ryan Lott and David Byrne)
Who Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (Music by M. M. Keeravani; Lyrics by Chandrabose)
Who Should Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (Music by M. M. Keeravani; Lyrics by Chandrabose)
Not taking anything away from Rihanna. She’s great, but “Life Me Up” isn’t landing in any all-timer lists for her amazing career. Best Original Song has been awarded the mainstream popular artists many times, but often for some of their most forgetful songs. “Naatu Naatu” is an incredibly catch song the feels like it could become a phenomenon, especially at parties amongst people who have seen RRR. This is also the only nomination that was an essential piece to a core scene of the film it was in. This would be a travesty if anything else wins.
Best Original Score
All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann)
Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Son Lux)
The Fabelmans (John Williams)
Who Will Win: Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
Who Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann)
This category is a toss up. The jazz ensembles of Babylon mesh so well with the movie’s frantic pace, but give me Son Lux’s score. The blasting sound of the harmonium throughout All Quiet on the Western Front creates a fitting and chilling sound for this film that emphasizes the fear, loss, and hopelessness of war.
Best Animated Short Film
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud)
The Flying Sailor (Wendy Tiley and Amanda Forbis)
Ice Merchants (João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano)
My Year of Dicks (Sara Gunnardóttir and Pamela Ribon)
An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It (Lachlan Pendragon)
Who Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (Charlie Mackesy and Matthew Freud)
Who Should Win: Ice Merchants (João Gonzalez and Bruno Caetano)
For what it’s worth, I feel The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse and Ice Merchants are heads above the other nominations. Both have charm and emotional undertones of connectedness. At only 14 minutes and less than half the run time of the favorite, Ice Merchants just leaves an equal if not larger imprint.
Best Live Action Short Film
An Irish Goodbye (Tom Berkely and Ross White)
Ivalu (Anders Walter and Rebecca Pruzan)
Le pupille (Alice Rohrwacher and Alfonso Cuarón)
Night Ride (Erik Tveiten and Gaute Lid Larsson)
The Red Suitcase (Cyrus Neshvad)
Who Will Win: An Irish Goodbye (Tom Berkely and Ross White)
Who Should Win: An Irish Goodbye (Tom Berkely and Ross White)
Best Documentary Short
The Elephant Whispers (Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga)
Haulout (Evgenia Arbugaeva and Maxim Arbugaev)
How Do You Measure a Year? (Jay Rosenblatt)
The Martha Mitchell Effect (Anne Alvergue and Beth Levison)
Stranger at the Gate (Joshua Settle and Conall Jones)
Who Will Win: The Elephant Whispers (Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga)
Who Should Win: The Elephant Whispers (Kartiki Gonsalves and Guneet Monga)
Best Documentary Feature
All That Breathes (Shaunak Sen, Aman Mann, and Teddy Leifer)
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Laura Poitras, Howard Getler, John Lyons, Nan Goldin, and Yoni Golijov)
Fire of Love (Sara Dosa, Shane Boris, and Ina Fichman)
A House Made of Splinters (Simon Lereng Wilmont and Monica Hellström)
Navalny (Daniel Rohr, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller, and Shane Boris)
Who Will Win: Navalny (Daniel Rohr, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller, and Shane Boris)
Who Should Win: Navalny (Daniel Rohr, Odessa Rae, Diane Becker, Melanie Miller, and Shane Boris)
Best International Feature Film
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Close
EO
The Quiet Girl
Who Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Who Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Animated Feature Film
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar, and Alex Bulkey)
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (Dean Fleischer Camp, Elizabeth Holm, Andrew Goldman, Caroline Kaplan, and Paul Messy)
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Joel Crawford and Mark Swift)
The Sea Beast (Chris Williams and Jed Schlanger)
Turning Red (Domee Shi and Lindsey Collins)
Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Who Should Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Best Adapted Screenplay
All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson, and Ian Stokell)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
Living (Kazuo Ishiguro)
Top Gun: Maverick (Screenplay by Ehren Kruger, Eric Warren Singer, and Christopher McQuarrie; Story by Peter Craig and Justin Marks)
Women Talking (Sarah Polley)
Who Will Win: Women Talking
Who Should Win: Women Talking
Best Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert)
The Fabelmans (Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner)
Tár (Todd Field)
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)
Who Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Kerry Condon (The Bashees of Inisherin)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Who Will Win: Condon
Who Should Win: Condon
Best Supporting Actress might be the most open race of all of the awards, let alone the major ones. Arguments could be made for all with Bassett and Curtis seeming like the current favorites considering their wins in previous awards shows. This prediction is betting on what I believe would be The Academy actually making the correct selection in Kerry Condon, which would likely be heavily debated by most people. The argument for Condon is that she was arguably the best performance in a film loaded with great performances as The Banshees of Inisherin has four acting noms. This may also be predicated on the fact that Bassett would win for a role in a Marvel film, which has never won an acting award. There’s also a chance that Hsu and Curtis split some votes for their performances in Everything Everywhere All at Once.
Best Supporting Actor
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Who Will Win: Quan
Who Should Win: Quan
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett (Tár)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Who Will Win: Yeoh
Who Should Win: Blanchett
Objectively, it’s hard to not say Blanchett. Her performance as Lydia Tár is one of the great performances of the 21st century. That doesn’t take away from Michelle Yeoh and her performance in Everything Everywhere All at Once which is a more physical and multifaceted role. Either Blanchett or Yeoh could win and it would be deserving in either case. Considering Blanchett already has two Oscars and hasn’t seemed to push much for this year’s award, the likelihood of Yeoh win seems even more likely. For many, including myself, Yeoh is the personal fan favorite for this award. Riseborough’s performance is one that few will have seen, but she is a great third place finisher.
Best Actor
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Bill Nighy (Living)
Who Will Win: Fraser
Who Should Win: Farrell
Similar to the Best Actress award, Best Actor has a heavy fan favorite with the comeback of Fraser. Considering he just won a SAG award, Fraser still feels like the favorite. Butler is great in Elvis and could also have a chance of a semi-surprising victory. Nighy and Mescal were also great in emotional roles. In a year without a generational performance, Farrell was my selection. His role as Pádraic in Banshees of Inisherin was one that carried charm, sadness, comedy, innocence, and anger while being an original character.
Best Director
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
Todd Field (Tár)
Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Who Will Win: Kwan and Scheinert
Who Should Win: Kwan and Scheinert
This feels like an award that could swerve away from the favorite and most deserving nomination in favor of a Spielberg win as sort of a career achievement award for a movie about his origin into movie making. Hopefully The Academy doesn’t do this and the most deserving nominations win, Kwan and Scheinert.
Best Picture
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking
Who Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who Should Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Anything other than Everything Everywhere All at Once would be a shocking surprise at this point. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert’s film is riding a ton of momentum and had a very successful streaming run for a movie that was released around the time of last year’s award show. Not only is this the most original style movie, but it’s multiverse jumps between genres of action, drama, kung fu, comedy, and science fiction in a near flawless way. Thanks to many great and nominated performances, EEAAO is a movie that runs at 120 mph throughout, but still has the ability to hit the brakes and leave a lasting, emotional impact. If anything can pull off a major upset, my money would be on All Quiet on the Western Front. Let’s hope that doesn’t happen and we all avoid endless conversation about a Best Picture robbery.
