We have arrived. Another football season is here. That time of year where Sundays were made to sit on your couch for hours on end. Remote at the ready, changing stations between your favorite team’s game and the NFL RedZone, only letting go to pick up your phone to check your multiple fantasy football teams’ scores. We’ve made it, my friends. In preparation for football games starting this week and continuing until the beginning of February, here is my personal (and likely terrible) 2023-24 NFL Season Preview:
AFC Conference
AFC East
Final Standings: New York Jets (BOLD = Playoff Team), Buffalo, Miami, New England
New York: I’m honestly annoyed with myself that I’m buying the hype for the Jets. It’s less to do with just Aaron Rodgers taking over center and more to do with it not being Zach Wilson or Mike White. For real though, this Jets defense is the real deal. With Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner, there may not be a defense in the NFL with two better players 25 or under. It doesn’t end there. Williams is just the beginning of the Jets’ defensive line that coach Robert Saleh is so excited about. Offensively, I’d expect Garrett Wilson to be Rodgers’ new favorite target. The additions of former Packers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb are pretty laughable, but a running back combo of Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook is a scary backfield. All of this, combined with a last place schedule should find New York at the top of the AFC East.
Buffalo: The Bills will be one of the better teams in the AFC and will be in the running for the East division title all season, but how has this team significantly improved. With teams like Cincinnati, New York, Miami, Los Angeles, and Jacksonville getting better, Buffalo feels like they’ve just been spinning their tires. It’s hard not to like the Bills. Josh Allen is an elite quarterback and assuming Stefon Diggs stays happy, they should continue to be one of the best QB-WR combos in the NFL. Gabe Davis is a solid number two receiver and James Cook looks to become a legitimate running threat for Buffalo. The defense has been and should continue to still be good. Two questions: What gets this Buffalo team over the hump of Kansas City and Cincinnati? Can this Buffalo team hold off the other up and coming teams in the AFC? If not, head coach Sean McDermott might be the latest victim of the “good, but not good enough” coach firings.
Miami: The Dolphins were NFL Sunday Ticket darlings last year with their high flying offense which featured Tua Tagovailoa throwing passes to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle for massive amounts of yards. Unfortunately, Tagovailoa’s health was at risk due to multiple concussions and the Dolphins were forced to play a playoff game with Skylar Thompson at quarterback. If Tua can stay healthy, there is no reason to think this Dolphins team can’t score like they did last season. With Jalen Ramsey being added to the defense, the Dolphins are making “win now” moves. In a loaded AFC, Miami will be battling for one of the final wild card berths.
New England: More about this being a division full of playoff level teams than a slight against Bill Belichick and New England. The defense should be not just great, but one of the elite defenses in the league. It really comes down to do you feel like an offense led by Mac Jones can compete with this division and conference. In the NFC, New England is almost certainly a playoff team. Not so sure about that in the AFC.
AFC North
Final Standings: Cincinnati, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland
Cincinnati: The Bengals may have been one dumb penalty away from defeating the Chiefs and playing in the Super Bowl for the second straight season. Despite Mahomes and Kansas City getting the better of Joe Burrow and Cincinnati, these teams are much more even than they are distanced apart. Zac Taylor may not have the chops of an Andy Reid, but his offense is arguably more loaded when it comes to skill players. Defensively, the Bengals might be better and are definitely better the longer Chris Jones holds out in Kansas City. At this point we’ve seen enough from Burrow. He’s one of “those guys” and will have his team in the running year after year. In the AFC North, Baltimore is good, but the Bengals are better.
Baltimore: Can this team please stay healthy? It has been so long that we forget how good this Ravens team can be. At this point, can we really even know? If, and that’s a big if, Lamar Jackson, JK Dobbins, Mark Andrews, rookie Zay Flowers, and the rest of the Ravens offense can remain intact, there is no reason to think this Baltimore team isn’t on a playing field with the best of the AFC. Super Bowl contender? Let’s just start with staying healthy.
Pittsburgh: I love this Pittsburgh team and it kills me a bit inside that I didn’t end up finding them a spot in the playoffs. The Steelers will be in the running with Miami, Los Angeles, and Denver for the final playoff spot or two. Have we mentioned how good the AFC is? Never doubt Mike Tomlin. If Kenny Pickett can take a big step, an offense with Najee Harris, Diontae Johnson, George Picks, and Pat Freiermuth could be sneaky good. The Steelers defense won’t be sneaky good, just plain good. Led by my pick for Defensive Player of the Year, T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh’s defense will be playoff caliber. It’s a matter of whether the offense meets that level.
Cleveland: No one outside of Cleveland will likely being cheering for the Browns with Deshaun Watson at quarterback again. Even the “lovable losers of the NFL” won’t get any love now. Off the field drama aside, it’s hard to know what to expect from Watson this season. There is no question, stepping into midseason NFL action had be hard after a year away. It’s definitely possible that Watson could take a massive leap towards his former production level. Amari Cooper isn’t prime DeAndre Hopkins, but still a good option. Watson does get the benefit of Nick Chubb, who is now the face of this Browns offense. Defensively, Myles Garrett is still one of the NFL’s elite players, but does he have enough support? I’m predicting Watson and the Browns are better in 2023, but still struggle to get out of the bottom of a quality AFC North.
AFC South
Final Standings: Jacksonville, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Houston
Jacksonville: Is it crazy to think that Jacksonville might be the biggest favorite to win their division after Kansas City and Philadelphia? If last year was a changing of the guard in the AFC South, this season should be the Jags confidently planting their flag as the heads of the division for at least the immediate future. They have the quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, the Super Bowl winning coach in Doug Pederson, and young developing roster. Lawrence gets a shiny new toy in former pro bowl receiver Calvin Ridley, who is returning after being suspended for gambling on NFL games. Ultimately, this division is really about the Jags getting better and developing compared to the other teams who are aging or in transition. If Jacksonville takes advantage of their opportunity, the Jags could have a top three seed in the postseason.
Tennessee: Mike Vrabel’s team has had moments where they’ve felt like overachievers and at other times seems like a team that had just taken advantage of a poor division. Having a tank of a running back in Derrick Henry certainly hasn’t hurt, but how much more tread is on those tires? Ryan Tannehill will start the year at quarterback, but if the season goes sideways you know second year quarterback Malik Willis or rookie Will Levis will get a look. DeAndre Hopkins has been added and although I don’t doubt he has some good football left, will Tannehill have the same chemistry with him as Kyler Murray or Deshaun Watson? The Titans strongest area might be their defensive line, led by star Jeffery Simmons. It feels like Tennessee is in for big roster changes after this season.
Indianapolis: Shane Steichen steps in as head coach of the Colts and will begin his tenure with a starting rookie quarterback in the extremely raw but athletic Anthony Richardson. Indianapolis, a major disappointment for the past couple years under Frank Reich, won’t have those expectations this season. With Jonathon Taylor on the PUP list for the first four weeks and unhappy with contract negotiations, Richardson will have an opportunity to step in and become the face of the franchise. Being thrown into the fire right away makes it unlikely that the Colts can expect many wins, but hopefully Richardson plays well enough to have something for the Colts to build off of.
Houston: The Texans will also have a new head coach and quarterback combination with former San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans and rookie C.J. Stroud. The Texans were arguably the worst team last season and were on their way to the number one pick before they pulled out a win over the Bears in the final game of the season. All things considered, the new faces in the Houston, including third overall pick defensive end Will Anderson Jr., are reason enough to be excited. Between the Deshaun Watson off the field issues of a few seasons ago and multiple losing seasons, it seems like the Texans finally have some direction again.
AFC West
Final Standings: Kansas City, Denver, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas
Kansas City: The Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill, one of the best receivers in the NFL, prior to last season and still won a Super Bowl. At this point, we need to just acknowledge that it doesn’t matter whose on this Chiefs roster. If Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Travis Kelce are in that Kansas City locker room, the Super Bowl is within reach. Last season I thought this division was up for grabs. This season, I’m not even going there. There’s talent in the AFC North beyond the Chiefs, but I can’t pick against them. Even with Chris Jones holding out for a new deal. Even with Travis Kelce possibly missing a couple weeks due to a hyperextended knee. I’m not going to be caught doubting this team.
Denver: The Broncos were the joke of the NFL last season. Matthew Hackett was fired as head coach before even finishing his first season and Russell Wilson had his worst season as a pro. Do I think this all falls on Hackett? No. Does hiring Sean Payton make a big difference though? I think yes. It may take some time for Payton to lay the groundwork, but I do believe he can make this team a playoff team. The defense has a lot of talent and although I have questions about the receiving core, I’m convinced that the former Saints head coach can build an offense that may not return Wilson to his Seahawks prime, but far better than what we saw last season.
Los Angeles: The Chargers are my new “just can’t trust them” team. With Kellen Moore in as the offensive coordinator, it feels like he is just waiting to grab Brandon Staley’s job. This team should be an AFC playoff team. Justin Herbert is one of the great young quarterbacks, they have the receivers, a versatile running back, and a defense that has plenty of playmakers. This team just chokes. They are the team that goes to Houston as ten point favorites in a must win playoff picture game and lose by two scores. Staley’s overaggressive decision making is respectable, but also incredibly questionable at times. I hope I’m wrong about the Chargers. I want to see Herbert thrive and I love a lot about this roster, but much like I won’t bet against the Chiefs, I’m not falling for this trick again.
Las Vegas: The Raiders could never really put it together last season. There were moments where Josh McDaniels’ team looked like they were about to turn a corner, but then they would have a bad loss. With Derek Carr’s time over and Jimmy Garoppolo’s beginning it reminds me of the movie Get Out, but instead of white people taking over black people’s bodies for various reasons it’s just a better looking version of the same person (no offense to Carr, but come on, look at Jimmy). Davante Adams is a top three receiver, but how will he handle another year of losing after years of winning in Green Bay? The Raiders defense is grim after Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones. After the two start ends, it’s a bunch of guys who look like AI generated football names. I present you, linebacker Divine Diablo.
NFC Conference
NFC East
Final Standings: Philadelphia, Dallas, Washington, New York Giants
Philadelphia: The Eagles will undoubtedly be the favorites out of the NFC this season. We all know how hard it is for teams to return to the Super Bowl, but barring injuries, who beats this team? San Francisco and Dallas are arguably the next most talented teams, but they don’t have Jalen Hurts at quarterback. Hurts will look to return to the form that made him a legitimate MVP candidate last season. This Eagles offense added D’Andre Swift to its backfield. Defensively, this was a much improved defense last season and the rich got richer by adding two first round rookies, including arguably the most talented player in the draft in Georgia defensive lineman Jalen Carter. The Eagles were arguably a Hurts’ fumble away from a Super Bowl title last season. With a healthy roster, it is hard to not see the Eagles playing in the final game of the NFL season for the second straight season.
Dallas: The Cowboys feel like the Buffalo of the NFC. Undoubtedly, one of the most talented rosters in the conference, but hard to imagine enough has been improved to compete with the teams ahead of them. The problem for Dallas is that they don’t even get the benefit of being the best team in their own division. Dak Prescott will still have CeeDee Lamb and an addition of veteran receiver Brandin Cooks. Ezekiel Elliot is gone and Tony Pollard finally gets his shot as RB1. Pollard can be electric and should provide a more versatile offense for Dallas despite the fact that Kellen Moore is no longer offensive coordinator. Speaking of coordinators, Dan Quinn will return on the defensive side as arguably the most sought after future head coach. Quinn’s defense will still be one of the league’s best with Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs, DeMarcus Lawrence and new acquired, Stephon Gilmore. Dallas is nearly a lock for the postseason, but unfortunately the Cowboys will likely have to travel on the road on Wild Card Weekend.
Washington: Dan Snyder has sold the team and that not only means Washington wins, but football wins. On the field, Ron Rivera’s team could be one of the NFL’s surprises. The division returns three playoff teams so it won’t be easy, but the Commanders should have a very competitive defense with hopefully a healthy Chase Young for the whole season. Offensively, Sam Howell steps in as an unknown, but promising quarterback and has some nice options in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Washington might just be able good enough to take one of those NFC wild card spots.
New York: The Giants were one of the great surprises last season. Daniel Jones had a career year and got paid. Brian Daboll came away with a well deserved “NFL Coach of the Year” trophy. Daboll is a great coach, but I just don’t believe in Jones at quarterback. There is usually a lot of shifting in playoff teams year after year and I just can’t convince myself that the Giants are one of the teams to return, especially in a tough division. Saquon Barkley is great, the defense has some really nice pieces, and last year was a nice story. Ultimately, the Giants snuck into the post season and benefited by playing an imposter Minnesota team before getting obliterated by Philly. Prove me wrong, Giants.
NFC North
Final Standings: Minnesota, Detroit, Green Bay, Chicago
Minnesota: I swear this isn’t home team bias. I actually hate that I ended up with the Vikings winning the NFC North (due to a tie breaker I must mention). I truly believe that Detroit is the best team in this division. Hell, depending on what Jordan Love is, Green Bay could be better too. This division is just full of mediocrity, something I’m familiar with as a lifetime Vikings fan. Last year’s Vikings team was mostly a fluke. They won’t have that success in one score games again. I do think Minnesota’s record window is somewhere between 7-10 and 11-6. The offense should still be prolific at times thanks to the pound for pound best wide receiver in the NFL, Justin Jefferson, and do I daresay a now underrated Kirk Cousins? Rookie Jordan Addison has an opportunity to take the offense to another level as a rookie much like Randy Moss in 1998 and Percy Harvin in 2009. Brian Flores is in at defensive coordinator and although I expect him to improve that unit, there is not nearly enough talent there to work with. This is likely Cousins’ last season in purple before Minnesota transitions to a younger, more cost friendly option. The division is there for the taking, but it’s hard to expect anything more than that.
Detroit: There might not be a bigger hype train than Detroit. In their defense, they played better than just about any team in the NFL in last few weeks of the season, even eliminating Green Bay from the playoffs in the final game of the regular season. Dan Campbell seems to be a legitimate coach and is building something special. Jared Goff returns as quarterback for his third season in Detroit after many expected him to just be a temporary option. He will be able to throw to one of the great young receivers, Amon Ra-St. Brown. The Lions are also excited about their rookie running back, Jahmyr Gibbs. Detroit’s weakness last season was a defense that was at times brutally bad and it doesn’t look like the team from The Motor City did enough to make a big improvement. That being said, Campbell’s third season and the development of many of their young players builds a trajectory that seems like this is the season Detroit takes that next step. No team in this division has as great an upside, but will Detroit live up to the hype or will the Lions “lion” themselves out of the playoff picture?
Green Bay: The Aaron Rodgers era is over and the Jordan Love era begins. Of every team in the NFC North and quite honestly, the entire NFL, the Packers are maybe the biggest wild card. What is Love going to be? If he’s bad, Green Bay will most certainly be in for a long season. If he’s good or great (please God, no), who knows how good this team could be? Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are promising young wide receivers and Aaron Jones is still a quality back. The Green Bay defense has been continuously disappointing, especially in big games, but no one can doubt they have talented individuals on that side of the football. It’s just a matter of putting all of those pieces together. A betting man would be wise to expect Love to be somewhere between great and bad, putting him as a mid-tier quarterback this season. Considering Rodgers wasn’t very good last season, a mid-tier quarterback play by Green Bay’s new guy behind center could put Green Bay in the playoff hunt. As much as I hate to say it, don’t count out the Packers until we see this kid play in meaningful games.
Chicago: Justin Fields has become one of the most heavily debated players in the NFL. He is making the “Is Lamar Jackson a good quarterback?” debate look like it is long forgotten. Fields is a truly dynamic player, but I do agree there are questions with his accuracy. With Chase Claypool acquired late last season and DJ Moore this offseason, prove it season is upon us. Personally, I’m betting on Fields winning some games with his feet and the Bears being an annoying team to play, especially at home, but I think this is still the weakest team in the division when stacked up against each other. The Bears will go as Fields goes and if he does have chemistry with Moore this prediction will probably look pretty bad.
NFC South
Final Standings: New Orleans, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Atlanta
New Orleans: The NFC South is “amateur hour” compared to other divisions in the NFL, but the New Orleans Saints should be the best the division has to offer. Derek Carr is in at quarterback, which should be just enough of an upgrade to put the Saints on top of a division that had Tampa Bay win last season with a losing record. With no Tom Brady playing for Tampa, a rookie (albeit first overall pick) in Carolina, and an unproven second year quarterback in Atlanta, Carr and a veteran team in New Orleans should be back in the playoffs in 2023-24.
Carolina: The previously mentioned first overall pick in Carolina, Bryce Young, will have an opportunity to find the playoffs in his very first season. The Panthers defense should return with a solid foundation with guys like Derrick Brown, Shaq Thompson, and one of the NFL’s great young stars, Brian Burns. The problem for Carolina and Young is that the rookie quarterback will have limited weapons in his introduction to the NFL. Carolina’s perceived to be top two wide receivers are veterans are D.J. Chark and a 33 year old Adam Thielen. Miles Sanders should provide a decent running game for a team that felt the significant loss of trading Christian McCaffrey, but Young will have to well worthy of that first pick and more in his first season if Carolina looks to find the postseason.
Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin will go from catching passes from Tom Brady over the past three seasons to catching them from former first overall pick and highly inaccurate quarterback, Baker Mayfield. This feels like Mayfield’s last shot to prove himself as a worth starting quarterback. It will be interesting to see if offensive frustrations start causing issues in the locker room if the Tampa wideouts keep getting open, but not getting balls. Head Coach Todd Bowles will have to rely heavily upon his defense which still has many of the players who helped lead one of the NFL’s best defense to a Super Bowl just three seasons ago. Much like Mayfield at quarterback, this could be Bowles last chance to prove himself as a legitimate head coach and not just an elite defensive coordinator.
Atlanta: This was my prediction for the Atlanta Falcons last season:
“If the Atlanta Falcons win more than three games, I will be surprised. If the Atlanta Falcons win more than five games, I will be shocked. If the Atlanta Falcons win more than seven games…Okay come on, this team isn’t winning eight games. Hey, at least watching Kyle Pitts and Drake London catch balls will be fun.”
Atlanta won seven games…In all honesty, it doesn’t change my opinion of them this year. I don’t see Desmond Ridder growing enough to have this team compete, even in a terrible division. It may not be as bad as just three wins, but I don’t see Atlanta getting back to seven wins. If nothing less, may the Fantasy Football Gods bless Kyle Pitts with some catches this season.
NFC West
Final Standings: San Francisco, Seattle, Los Angeles Rams, Arizona
San Francisco: Outside of Philadelphia, is there a better roster in the NFL? Nick Bosa, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Trent Williams, Arik Armstead, and Fred Warner. These are some of the best guys at each of their positions. The big question mark? Can Brock Purdy show the same magic he showed last season after injuries to Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo? Purdy never got to finish his story last season as he was injured in the NFC Championship Game. As we’ve seen before, this roster doesn’t need a quarterback to be Tom Brady. Head Coach Kyle Shanahan just needs a player who will not make mistakes and can keep moving the sticks, something Purdy did magnificently in 2022-23. With Garoppolo in Vegas and Lance traded to Dallas, it’s obvious the Niners have complete confidence in their quarterback. Will it be enough to find them in the Super Bowl? f not, it will start to feel like a missed opportunity like the New Orleans teams with Drew Brees, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara. A team that had a Super Bowl roster, that never finished the job.
Seattle: There may not have been another non-Super Bowl winning team that can feel better about last season than the Seahawks. Losing Russell Wilson and replacing him with Geno Smith felt like a transition year. Instead, Smith had a career year, Seattle had a great draft class, and the Seahawks clinched a playoff berth. With running back Kenneth Walker and cornerback Riq Woolen in their second years, and Seattle adding rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba to the wide receiver room with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, Pete Carroll’s team should be a legitimate contender to the 49ers for the division crown.
Los Angeles: There’s a “Super Bowl Hangover”, but what the Rams experienced last season was arguably worse than anything Bradley Cooper, Ed Helms, or Zach Galifianakis experienced. Losing Matthew Stafford was something Los Angeles was not built to recover from, but also having Cooper Kupp miss games and their defense performing as one of the worst in the NFL was not something this team could recover from. It’s hard to imagine the defense being any better with Jalen Ramsey gone and Aaron Donald being about the only name a semi-regular football fan would recognize on that side of the ball. The case for Los Angeles being better would be a healthy Stafford and Kupp showing that unstoppable chemistry they had in their Super Bowl season, but even that is off to a difficult start with Kupp already out for an unknown period of time due to his hamstring. If Kupp can recover and return to being one of the most dominant players in the league, Los Angeles could be an interesting team and potential last team in the playoffs, but if not, this will be another long season for Sean McVay’s team.
Arizona: Arizona’s Super Bowl in 2023-24 is clinching the number one pick in the 2024 Draft and drafting USC quarterback Caleb Williams. They know it. We all know it. If the Cardinals win more than three games we will all be shocked and their front office will probably be disappointed. This is the favorite to be the worst team in the NFL this season. It seems a matter of time before Kyler Murray is playing Call of Duty in a different city.
NFL Awards
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Will Anderson, Defensive End (Houston)
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Jahmyr Gibbs, Running Back (Detroit)
Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt, Linebacker (Pittsburgh)
NFL Most Valuable Player: Jalen Hurts, Quarterback (Philadelphia)
Post Season Predictions
Playoff Teams
AFC: (1) Kansas City, (2) Cincinnati, (3) New York Jets, (4) Jacksonville, (5) Baltimore, (6) Buffalo, (7) Denver
NFC: (1) Philadelphia, (2) San Francisco, (3) Minnesota, (4) New Orleans, (5) Dallas, (6) Seattle, (7) Detroit
Wild Card Weekend:
AFC:
(2) Cincinnati vs (7) Denver
Winner: Cincinnati
(3) New York Jets vs (6) Buffalo
Winner: New York Jets
(4) Jacksonville vs (5) Baltimore
Winner: Baltimore
NFC:
(2) San Francisco vs (7) Detroit
Winner: San Francisco
(3) Minnesota vs (6) Seattle
Winner: Seattle
(4) New Orleans vs (5) Dallas
Winner: Dallas
Divisional Round
AFC:
(1) Kansas City vs (5) Baltimore
Winner: Kansas City
(2) Cincinnati vs (3) New York Jets
Winner: Cincinnati
NFC:
(1) Philadelphia vs (6) Seattle
Winner: Philadelphia
(2) San Francisco vs (5) Dallas
Winner: Dallas
Conference Championships
AFC:
(1) Kansas City vs (2) Cincinnati
Winner: Cincinnati
NFC:
(1) Philadelphia vs (5) Dallas
Winner: Philadelphia
Super Bowl LVIII: Cincinnati Bengals vs Philadelphia Eagles
Super Bowl Champion: Cincinnati Bengals