After 18 weeks of regular season football, we have finally reached the NFL Playoffs. This year’s 14 playoff teams are a mixed bag of slow starts with strong finishes, great starts with bad finishes, quarterbacks who have vastly improved over the season, veteran teams, youthful teams, streaky teams, and in the case of Baltimore, a wrecking machine. The final week of the regular season found a couple of those teams punching their ticket and a couple teams who saw their postseason hopes disintegrate into nothing. Without further ado, here are the biggest stories form Week 18. Now let’s get on with some postseason football.
Buffalo Makes it Four Straight AFC East Titles
This was supposed to be the year the Buffalo Bills AFC East title streak was going to end. After three straight division crowns, the entrance of Aaron Rodgers into the division and/or the continued upward trajectory of the Miami Dolphins was supposed to bounce a Bills team that still had a very talented, but minimally changed roster. Even with Rodgers’ season ending on his first drive of the season, it looked like it was still going to happen. Miami had held the top place in the division since Week Four of the season, but the Bills ending the season on a five game win streak that culminated in a 21-14 win in South Beach on Sunday Night locked Buffalo into their fourth straight division title and a playoff berth.
Part II of this AFC matchup was much closer than the first one back in Week Four in which Buffalo completely dominated the Dolphins to a tune of 48-20. This version limited the scoring from both teams to just the second and final quarters, with Miami actually holding a 14-7 lead into halftime thanks to touchdowns by De’Von Chance and Tyreek Hill.
Three Josh Allen turnovers played a large part in Miami’s ability to hold a lead of much of the game. Offensively, the Bills dominated Miami in total yardage with an advantage of 473 to 275, but Allen’s turnovers, which continue to be the biggest risk to the Bills hopes of reaching the Super Bowl, kept the Dolphins in the game.
The Dolphins were shorthanded with Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert missing the game due to injuries and that lack of additional offensive punch may have played a huge part in a second half that was dominated by the Buffalo defense. Tua Tagovailoa had major struggles moving the offense against the veteran Bills defense.
Just over one minute into the fourth quarter, Deonte Harry fielded a punt at the Bills defense and took it 96 yards to the house to tie the game for the Bills. After a three and out, Buffalo took that momentum and Josh Allen led a 74 yard drive that ended with a Dawson Knox touchdown catch which would end up proving enough for the win and another AFC East title.
The Buffalo win now means that the Bills own the second seed in the AFC and will be heavy favorites at home against the Pittsburgh Steelers who also clinched a playoff spot on the final day of the regular season.
Miami’s missed opportunity to host a home playoff game against Buffalo next week now turns into a road game against the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. Not necessarily great options either way, but certainly the Dolphins would prefer to have the home game.
It may not be a vastly different Buffalo team to years of the past and the Bills barely made the playoffs even so, but the Dolphins, Jets, and Patriots will have to wait another year before they try to knock them off the AFC East mountain.
Eagles Free Falling into Playoffs
Of all of the teams that will be playing in the postseason moving forward, it’s hard to believe the Philadelphia Eagles are playing the worst football. After a 10-1 start to the season, the Eagles finished 1-5, culminating with a 27-10 loss to the New York Giants in a game where the NFC East title may have been still up for grabs. Philadelphia became the first team in NFL history to start 10-1 and not win 12 games, something they have an even bigger advantage to do with the addition of a 17th game starting just last season.
A once very good Philadelphia defense looks broken. That breaking point may have come from the 42-19 loss to San Francisco and 33-13 loss to Dallas in back to back weeks. The last two weeks have included giving up 35 points and 27 points to Arizona and New York, two teams who will have top 10 picks in the NFL Draft and two teams who have plenty of issues offensively. Eagles cornerbacks have been getting lost downfield like they are wandering the desert.
Speaking of struggling offense, the Eagles are not necessarily safe with their own scoring unit. Where Jalen Hurts was an MVP candidate last season, his contract extension now looks concerning due to his struggles throwing the ball and finding the end zone beyond one to two yard “Brotherly Shoves”. With two very good receivers in A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, the Eagles passing attack isn’t as great as on would expect it to be and Brown has had several moments this season in which he looks increasingly frustrated.
With all of the recent struggles for the defending NFC Champions, the one big positive is that they did draw the most winnable road game on Wild Card Weekend. The Eagles will draw the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers and will enter as road favorites. With their recent play, no game seems like a guarantee and the Eagles look far removed from being one of the two NFC favorites like they did about a month and a half ago, but a win in Tampa Bay is the last chance to spark a playoff run.
Jacksonville’s Late Season Collapse Topped Off with Loss to Titans
2023-24 was supposed to be the season where Jacksonville validated themselves as the best team in the AFC South and show a promising trajectory toward being one of the AFC elites. They had the coach in Doug Pederson, the quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, and had come off a season in which they finally pried the division from Tennessee and won a playoff game.
At one point this season, Jacksonville held an 8-3 record and it looked like those stars were aligning. That all started to a take a turn after a Week 13 overtime loss to the Jake Browning-led Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football, the same game in which Lawrence exited with what appeared to be a serious ankle injury.
Miraculously, Lawrence did return the following week, but never looked the same the rest of the season which was a large part to Jacksonville’s 1-5 finish. A quarterback who many expected to enter a top five conversation by season’s end looked like a risk to sign to a large extension. Whether it was lingering injuries or an actual lack of development, Lawrence was short hopping throws all over the place in the final quarter of the season.
Out of the five losses in those last six games, all the Jags had to do was win one of those games against Cincinnati, Cleveland, Baltimore, Tampa Bay, or Tennessee and they would’ve not just been in the playoffs, but still claimed their second straight division crown. In Jacksonville’s final opportunity, they were bullied by Tennessee who had nothing to play for. Where Buffalo, Pittsburgh, and Houston needed to win games, they did. Jacksonville had that opportunity five times in six games and couldn’t accomplish it.
This missed opportunity by Jacksonville will put a lot of pressure on a franchise that has never had any form of prolonged success. Lawrence will be entering his fourth season and be expecting a pricey contact extension. Pederson is a Super Bowl winning coach, but doesn’t have a long term successful pedigree which ironically fits the franchise he’s coaching. To make matters worse, the division just added three early round quarterbacks this season featuring the new defending champion Houston Texans having C.J. Stroud, the lock for Rookie of the Year, behind center for years to come.
That Jacksonville AFC South title came and went in one year. Next season will be a telling sign as to whether that window is still in-fact open.
Wild Card Weekend Game Watchability Rankings
6. Packers vs Cowboys: The Jordan Love progression throughout this season has been impressive. Green Bay is the youngest team in the NFL and made the playoffs in Love’s first season as a starter. Can’t ask for much more than that. It’s also unlikely they will be able to either because it’s hard to imagine this Green Bay defense stopping the machine that is CeeDee Lamb. The green and gold defense has looked competent the past two weeks against Minnesota and Chicago, but Dak Prescott’s favorite weapon and facing an above average defense may be a tall task for Love’s first postseason start. Mike McCarthy likely eliminates his former team.
5. Steelers vs Bills: Buffalo won the AFC East for the fourth straight season to earn a home playoff game and will enter as the biggest favorite on Wild Card weekend. The Bills have essentially been playing playoff football for five straight weeks as they had to win each of this games to even make the playoffs. Buffalo’s league leading winning streak and their season will be on the line when they play Pittsburgh, another team who clinched a playoff spot on the final day of the regular season. The major difference in this game will be that Buffalo has Josh Allen and Pittsburgh will have either Mason Rudolph or Kenny Pickett. Barring Allen’s gunslinger style leading to multiple turnovers and allowing the Steelers to literally steal the game, this should be an easy win for a Buffalo team that now looks like one of the best Super Bowl bets.
4. Eagles vs Buccaneers: For weeks it looked like the eventual wild card matchup between the NFC South champion and either Dallas or Philadelphia would be a lock for the road team. The Cowboys and Eagles just looked too good for the winner of the worst division in football. Philadelphia has had an epic collapse since starting the season 10-1. The Eagles became the first 10-1 team in NFL history to not win 12 games after losing five of their final six games. Now this isn’t to say defending NFC Champions shouldn’t still be favored, but this game definitely seems like Tampa Bay has a great opportunity to reach the Divisional Round if Baker Mayfield is healthy and plays like he has for a majority of the second half of the season.
3. Texans vs Browns: Maybe the two most unlikely playoff teams if you were to show this group at the beginning of the season. With Demeco Ryans as coach and C.J. Stroud having an unbelievable rookie year at quarterback, Houston went from bottom feeder to AFC South division champ in one season. Cleveland was going to have to survive and deep AFC North and they did that despite major instability at quarterback. The Browns have now found some of that stability if the most unlikely of places with veteran Super Bowl champion quarterback Joe Flacco. Flacco threw for over 360 yards against Houston just a couple weeks ago to lead a 36-22 Browns win, but with Stroud having not played in that game this could be an entirely different matchup.
2. Rams vs Lions: Matthew Stafford returns to The Motor City with a chance to eliminate his former team in their best season in 30 years. Jared Goff facing the team that sent him packing to win a Super Bowl with Stafford. This is the game with all the personal storylines, but it’s also a hell of a game. Dan Campbell’s entered the season as NFC North favorites and succeeded in doing so. Los Angeles made a quick turnaround after an abysmal 2022 and has a extremely talented and multi-faceted offense when healthy. The winner of this game could easily find themselves in the NFC Championship Game.
1. Dolphins vs Chiefs: Miami and Kansas City met on a neutral field back in Week Nine when the Chiefs won a 21-14 game in Frankfurt, Germany. The Chiefs dominated early in that game by taking a 21-0 lead into halftime, but Miami shutout the Kansas City offense in the second half. The Dolphins couldn’t finish off a late game drive to tie that game. This game features two teams who were in the top three of the AFC for nearly all season, but have noticeable dents to their resume. The Chiefs opened the season 6-1, but hadn’t won consecutive games since that point until the final two weeks of the regular season. On the other hand, Miami has 11 wins, but finished 1-5 against teams with winning teams. Home field could be a big factor in this AFC matchup.
The Brewball NFL Playoff Power Rankings
- Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
- Buffalo Bills (11-6)
- Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
- Detroit Lions (12-5)
- Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
- Miami Dolphins (11-6)
- Cleveland Browns (11-6)
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
- Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
- Houston Texans (10-7)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
- Green Bay Packers (9-8)